New Delhi, August 8, 2026: A rapidly strengthening El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) between August and October, potentially producing significant changes in temperature and rainfall patterns around the world, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The developing El Niño is already being described by some climate experts as exceptionally strong. Forecasts indicate that sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region could exceed 2.9°C during the August-October period, putting the event among the strongest El Niño episodes on record.
El Niño intensifies rapidly
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation a natural climate pattern involving changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific.
During El Niño events, unusually warm waters develop across the central and eastern Pacific. This can alter global atmospheric circulation, increasing temperatures in many parts of the world while changing normal rainfall patterns.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared the 2026 El Niño on June 11. Since then, the event has strengthened rapidly, with several weather experts warning that it could become an exceptionally powerful episode.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth said that recent Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures had already exceeded the levels recorded during the peak of the 1997-98 Super El Niño.
Meteorologist Andrej Flis has also suggested that the event could become one of the strongest in recorded history. He pointed to unusually warm water beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific as an important source of the event’s strength.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole adds another factor
At the same time a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is developing in the Indian Ocean.
During a positive IOD phase, waters in the western Indian Ocean become warmer than normal while waters near the eastern Indian Ocean become relatively cooler. This can increase rainfall over parts of the western Indian Ocean while reducing rainfall in the eastern region.
The IOD is particularly important for India because a positive phase can support rainfall during the southwest monsoon. This means it could partly counter the tendency of El Niño to suppress monsoon rainfall over India.
However, the interaction between the two climate systems could produce complicated regional weather patterns rather than simply cancelling each other out.
Global risks could increase
The WMO has warned that the combination of a strong El Niño a positive IOD and exceptionally warm global oceans could amplify climate related risks.
Potential impacts include extreme heat, drought, flooding and wildfires in different parts of the world. Changes in atmospheric circulation could also influence storm tracks and rainfall patterns far beyond the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions.
The effects could extend into the Northern Hemisphere winter, when changes in tropical convection can influence large scale atmospheric waves and the jet stream.
What could it mean for India?
For India, the impact is likely to be mixed.
El Niño typically increases the risk of weaker southwest monsoon rainfall, while a positive IOD can have the opposite effect and support rainfall over India. The final outcome will depend on the strength and timing of both systems, along with other atmospheric and oceanic factors.
This means that the presence of a positive IOD does not guarantee that El Niño’s influence will be completely neutralised.
WMO urges early preparedness
WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said that forecasts alone cannot prevent climate hazards, but they give governments and communities an opportunity to prepare before impacts occur.
With global ocean temperatures already unusually high, the developing Super El Niño could become an important driver of weather conditions during the months ahead.
The August to October period will therefore be closely watched as scientists assess how the powerful Pacific warming event interacts with the Indian Ocean Dipole and how the combined influence affects monsoon rainfall, heat and extreme weather across different regions.