The El Nino event developing in the equatorial Pacific has intensified rapidly and is now firmly established, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that it could strengthen further and peak towards the end of 2026.
The WMO estimates there is an almost 100 per cent probability that El Niño will continue through February 2027. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have already risen more than 2°C above average and could reach 3.6°C above normal, potentially making this the strongest El Niño in four decades.
The Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central eastern equatorial Pacific, increased from about 1.5°C above average during May-July 2026 to 2°C above average in July. Between late July and mid-August, temperatures reached 2.2°C to 2.6°C above normal, indicating continued strengthening.
WMO climate prediction expert Wilfran Moufouma Okia said forecasts suggest the peak could reach 3.6°C above average. WMO SecretaryGeneral Celeste Saulo said such an event could become the strongest El Niño recorded since the organisation began using its current indices to monitor its intensity.
The warming is also occurring below the ocean surface. In some areas, subsurface temperatures are reportedly as much as 8°C above normal. According to the WMO, the combination of surface and subsurface warming provides strong evidence that El Niño could continue intensifying in the coming months.
El Nino is the warmer phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) a climate pattern linked to changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the Pacific. It can influence global temperatures and rainfall and increase the likelihood of extreme weather events, including droughts, heatwaves, wildfires and floods.
For India and the wider South Asian region, the eventual impact will depend on more than the strength of El Nino alone. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is another important climate driver. The WMO expects a positive IOD to develop between September and November, which could offset some of El Niño’s effects over South Asia.
The WMO forecast indicates a higher likelihood of below normal rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Australia and several other regions during the September November period. Wetter than normal conditions are expected in parts of the Horn of Africa and central and southern South America.
However, the WMO has cautioned that a stronger El Niño does not automatically mean more severe impacts everywhere. Local effects vary according to season and location and can be altered by other climate patterns, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans.
WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo warned that the strengthening event could increase pressure on communities and economies already dealing with climate related disruptions. The organisation has called for increased preparedness and coordination among national meteorological and hydrological services to reduce risks to lives and livelihoods.