A wet winter can increase summer fire fuel, while burned landscapes can worsen flooding and erosion, highlighting the need for integrated disaster planning
Wildfires and floods are often treated as separate disasters, but events in Portugal’s Pinhal Interior region show how one hazard can increase the risk of another.
Across southern Europe, rising temperatures, extreme rainfall and worsening wildfire conditions are forcing authorities to rethink disaster preparedness. In Portugal, the sequence began with an exceptionally wet winter before the country entered another summer of elevated wildfire risk.
February 2026 was Portugal’s wettest February in 47 years, with rainfall reaching three to four times the normal monthly amount across large parts of mainland Portugal. Repeated Atlantic storms saturated soils, caused flooding and brought down trees across central Portugal.
However, the abundant rainfall also encouraged vegetation growth. In Mediterranean climates, a wet growing season can produce more fine vegetation that later dries during hot summer weather, providing additional fuel for wildfires.
The risk does not end when a disaster is over
The relationship between hazards is particularly significant in the Pinhal Interior, which experienced catastrophic wildfires in 2017. The Pedrógão Grande wildfire killed 66 people, many while attempting to escape by road. Another major wave of fires four months later killed around 50 people.
Portugal has since introduced measures aimed at improving landscape resilience, including Integrated Landscape Management Areas designed to address fragmented land management.
Yet challenges remain. Eucalyptus and maritime pine account for about 48 per cent of Portugal’s forest area, according to the latest national inventory figures available through PORDATA. Fragmented land ownership and insufficient forest management continue to complicate wildfire prevention.
The region also faced infrastructure damage before the 2026 fire season. Cyclonic winds associated with Storm Kristin brought down trees and blocked roads across central Portugal, with civil protection recording more than 3,300 incidents.
Pedrógão Grande subsequently restored more than 618 kilometres of forest roads before summer. The work illustrates how recovery from one hazard can become critical preparation for the next.
The exceptionally wet winter produced immediate flood risks while simultaneously creating conditions that could contribute to later wildfire danger.
Heavy rainfall breached ageing river defences along the Mondego, Portugal’s longest river, isolating the village of Ereira in Montemor-o-Velho for more than a week. Flooding also affected farmland and parts of rice and corn harvests around Soure and Montemor-o-Velho, while basements and riverside businesses in Coimbra were affected by rising water.
At the same time, the wet conditions encouraged vegetation growth. Once that vegetation dries during prolonged summer heat, it can increase the amount of combustible material available to wildfires.
The relationship works in the opposite direction as well.
Wildfire removes vegetation that normally protects soil from rainfall. Fire can also increase soil water repellency, reducing infiltration and increasing surface runoff and erosion.
Consequently, intense rainfall following a wildfire can create additional hazards on exposed slopes, including erosion, landslides and rapid runoff.
Simple measures can reduce post-fire erosion
Research in central Portugal suggests that relatively straightforward interventions can help protect burned landscapes.
In a burned eucalyptus plantation, researchers found that applying mulch made from forest residues reduced cumulative soil loss by 91 per cent over five years.
Such measures can help stabilise exposed soil before the next period of heavy rainfall. Emergency seeding can complement protective ground cover, but should not delay immediate erosion control measures.
Prevention must connect forests, roads, slopes and waterways
The experience of Pinhal Interior suggests that disaster planning cannot focus on individual hazards or isolated pieces of infrastructure.
Severely burned slopes near settlements, roads and waterways should be assessed before the rainy season. Buildings in fire-prone areas also need greater protection, including defensible space, fire resistant construction and independent water storage.
Where flood risks are also present, permeable surfaces and effective drainage should be incorporated into reconstruction.
Forest and water management must also be considered together. Clearing vegetation without maintaining streams and drainage channels addresses only part of the risk. Similarly, restoring forest access without preparing waterways leaves communities exposed to subsequent flooding and erosion.
The approach requires cooperation among landscape architects, ecologists, engineers, disaster risk specialists, planners and local communities before reconstruction decisions become permanent.
Recovery time is becoming increasingly important
The events in Portugal highlight a broader challenge associated with climate change: the period available for communities to recover between disasters is shrinking.
A storm can damage roads and drainage systems before wildfire season, while a wildfire can leave slopes vulnerable before the next period of heavy rain. The consequences of the second disaster can therefore be shaped by damage caused months earlier.
The lesson from Portugal Pinhal Interior is that wildfire and flooding cannot always be managed as independent risks. Forests, settlements, roads, slopes and waterways form a connected system in which changes caused by one extreme event can influence the severity of the next.
As climate extremes intensify, resilience will increasingly depend on preparing for the hazards that follow one another rather than treating each disaster as an isolated event.