A new report by the Changing Markets Foundation has warned that the amount of wild caught fish used to produce feed for farmed fish and shrimp could rise substantially by 2040, depending on which aquaculture species drive future industry growth.
The report produced with researchers from the University of British Columbia, examined several scenarios for the expansion of aquaculture. It estimates that around 13.3% of current global wild fish catches are used for aquaculture feed. If future growth is concentrated in species that require little or no fish-based feed, such as shellfish and carp, the share could remain around 13%-17%.
However, if growth continues to include more carnivorous species such as salmon, shrimp, sea bream and sea bass the demand could rise to 29%-38% of global catches. Under a scenario in which market-driven expansion is heavily concentrated in these species, the report estimates that 34%-46% of wild-caught fish could be directed toward aquaculture feed by 2040.
The findings have intensified debate over how the rapidly expanding aquaculture industry should develop and how its demand for marine ingredients could affect wild fisheries and fishing dependent communities.
FAO disputes interpretation of 75% growth milestone
The report examined a 2023 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) roadmap that discussed achieving at least 75% growth in global sustainable aquaculture from 2020 levels by 2040.
But Manuel Barange, FAO assistant director general and director of its Fisheries and Aquaculture Division, said the 75% figure should not be interpreted as an official FAO target. According to Barange, it was a discussion of possible options rather than a formal proposal.
He said the FAO’s actual aquaculture growth target is 35% by 2030 compared with 2020 levels, under its earlier Blue Transformation roadmap. Barange also said the sector had already grown by 17% between 2020 and 2024.
The FAO’s global guidelines for sustainable aquaculture were adopted by its Committee on Fisheries in 2024. Barange said the guidelines were approved by consensus among members.
The report highlights that aquaculture’s demand for wild fish is not determined simply by the size of the industry. The type of species being farmed and the composition of their feed are also important.
Species such as carp and shellfish generally require little or no fish based feed, while some carnivorous species have historically relied more heavily on fishmeal and fish oil derived from wild caught fish.
Barange said he expects the volume of marine ingredients used by aquaculture may not increase during the period covered by the FAO’s 2030 growth target pointing to improvements in feed efficiency and the development of alternative ingredients.
The Changing Markets Foundation, however, argues that stronger safeguards are needed to ensure that fish used as feed does not compete with food supplies or undermine the livelihoods of small scale fishing communities.
Representatives of small scale fisheries at the FAO’s Committee on Fisheries meeting in Rome argued that industrial aquaculture can place additional pressure on fishing communities, particularly when wild fish are processed into feed for farmed species destined for higher-value markets.
Herman Kumara of the World Forum of Fish Harvesters and Fish Workers said representatives of small-scale fisheries felt that aquaculture was receiving increasing attention from governments because of its economic potential.
At the same time, researchers studying aquaculture’s nutritional role have pointed to its contribution to global food security. Laura Elsler of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health said aquaculture makes a substantial contribution to nutrition globally, with significant production growth occurring in low- and middle-income countries for domestic consumption.
The debate therefore centres not only on how much aquaculture expands, but also on which species are farmed, what they are fed, where production takes place and who benefits from the resulting seafood supply.