The 13-month streak of record-breaking global temperatures has come to an end, with July 2024 seeing a slight cooling compared to July 2023, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. From June 2023 until June 2024, both air and ocean surface water temperatures were on average a quarter of a degree Celsius higher than previous records, a significant jump that highlights the ongoing threat of climate change.
Global Warming Behind Record Heat
The recent streak was driven largely by climate change, primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels. July 2024 was still 1.48°C warmer than the pre-industrial average for the month, with about 1.3°C of that increase attributable to long-term global warming. The warmest global air temperature recorded during this period was in December 2023, at 1.78°C above the pre-industrial average for December.
While global warming is the main factor, the El Niño phenomenon also played a significant role. El Niño events increase global temperatures by reorganizing water across the Pacific Ocean, raising the temperature of the air worldwide. The 2023/2024 El Niño was strong, though not super-strong, and has since trended towards neutral, which explains the end of the record-breaking streak.
Other factors contributing to the heat include a slight increase in solar radiation due to the Sun’s 11-year sunspot cycle, rising concentrations of methane in the atmosphere, and potentially the reduction of particulate air pollution that can reflect sunlight.
The recent heat streak has had devastating impacts, particularly on coral reefs in the Caribbean and the Great Barrier Reef, where mass bleaching events occurred. While global temperatures may ease back as the Pacific shifts towards La Niña conditions, they are unlikely to return to pre-2023 levels.
El Niño acts like a ratchet on global warming, setting a new, higher norm for global temperatures with each event. It’s plausible that global temperatures will hover near the 1.4°C level until the next significant El Niño event, potentially pushing the world above 1.5°C of warming in the early 2030s.
The Paris Agreement committed the world to limit global warming to 1.5°C to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. While progress is being made in shifting towards renewable energy, the transition is not happening fast enough. New investments in fossil fuel infrastructure continue, threatening to undermine efforts to meet climate targets.
The urgency to accelerate the transition to a decarbonized economy is greater than ever. The recent streak of record-breaking temperatures may have ended, but without decisive action, headlines about extreme global warming are likely to return.
Reference: https://theconversation.com/earth-has-just-ended-a-13-month-streak-of-record-heat-heres-what-to-expect-next-236655