Severe drought and falling water levels in major rivers are increasingly disrupting inland shipping reducing the amount of cargo barges can carry and pushing up freight costs, according to the International Transport Forum (ITF).
Major European waterways including the Rhine, Danube, Loire and Po recorded exceptionally low water levels in recent months. During August 2026, barges travelling through parts of the Rhine could carry only about 15% of their normal cargo capacity while capacity on the Danube fell to around 30%.
The problem is expected to worsen as climate change increases the frequency and intensity of hydrological droughts. The ITF estimates that under high emission climate scenarios, average summer discharge on the Rhine could decline by up to 10% by 2050.
Reduced river capacity can have consequences far beyond waterways. When barges carry smaller loads more vessels and additional journeys are needed to transport the same volume of goods. This can increase freight rates, create congestion at ports and cause delays across supply chains.
In countries such as Belgium, China, the Netherlands and Romania, inland waterways account for a significant share of freight movement. The Rhine is a key route for transporting fuels, chemicals and agricultural products across Europe while river transport is also important for moving agricultural exports in the United States.
Past droughts have demonstrated the wider economic impact. Low water levels on the Rhine in 2018 were associated with a 0.4% decline in Germany’s GDP while industrial production was estimated to fall by about 1% during a month affected by 30 days of low water.
The ITF said shifting freight to road or rail is not always practical. A barge carrying 1,500 tonnes of dry bulk cargo for example, would require roughly 60 trucks with a 25 tonne capacity each to transport the same amount.
Governments and businesses are therefore adopting measures such as improved water level forecasting shallow draft vessels, reservoir releases, emergency dredging and increased storage of essential goods.
The ITF said stronger connections between waterways, railways and roads will become increasingly important as climate change puts additional pressure on freshwater resources and makes river based transport less predictable.