India is likely to experience warmer and drier conditions across much of the country in October with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting below normal rainfall during the month. However some regions could receive normal to above normal rainfall during the broader October-December post-monsoon period.
The southwest monsoon officially ended on September 30 after India recorded a 13% rainfall deficit. The country received 759.4 mm of rainfall during June-September compared with the normal 868.6 mm.
The IMD has attributed part of the rainfall deficit to El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific which emerged in June and strengthened during the monsoon season. Strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing and may continue until March 2027.
The IMD expects October rainfall to remain below normal, with the country likely to receive less than 85% of its long-period average rainfall. Above normal maximum temperatures are also expected across most parts of India.
However, rainfall is not expected to disappear completely. Several parts of eastern, southern and northeastern India could receive rain during the first week of October, with isolated heavy rainfall possible in some areas. Uttarakhand, parts of central and eastern India and several southern states are among the regions that could experience showers.
Some northwest regions may receive more rain
For the October December period, rainfall is expected to remain below normal over most parts of India. However, parts of northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir, could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The forecast could provide some relief to areas that experienced rainfall deficits during the southwest monsoon. Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh were among the regions that recorded deficient rainfall during the monsoon season.
Northeast monsoon to become important in South India
The northeast monsoon is expected to become increasingly important from the second half of October. The IMD has forecast its arrival over southern India around October 15-21.
Normal rainfall is expected during the October-December northeast monsoon season over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.
The northeast monsoon is particularly important for southern India. South Peninsular India receives around 30% of its annual rainfall from the northeast monsoon, while Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal receive about 48% of their annual rainfall during this season.
Winter arrival likely to be gradual
Although October is expected to be warmer than normal across much of India the IMD’s current outlook does not specify a precise nationwide date for the arrival of winter.
The weather transition is expected to take place gradually, with the southwest monsoon withdrawing and the northeast monsoon becoming dominant over southern India. While much of the country may remain warmer and drier in October rainfall during the post monsoon season could provide some relief to selected regions particularly parts of northwest and southern India.