A new island has emerged near Kulaly Island in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea as water levels continue to fall, highlighting the growing environmental changes affecting the world’s largest inland body of water. Scientists warn that parts of the shallow northern Caspian could face severe drying if the decline continues.
The newly exposed island was spotted during a recent aerial survey by environmental activists, including volunteer Daniyar Akimzhanov. He said he had documented several newly emerged islands in the region over the past four to five years. Some of these land formations extend for about one kilometre in length and 200 to 300 metres in width.
Wildlife has already begun reaching some of the exposed areas. Akimzhanov reported seeing a wild boar on one island, while wolves have also been observed crossing the ice to reach such locations.
However, not all newly exposed areas will become permanent islands. The Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, established in September 2025, said their future will depend on seabed topography, waves, wind-driven water-level changes and the continuing movement of the sea’s shoreline.
The Caspian Sea borders Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan. More than 80 per cent of its river inflow comes from Russia’s Volga River. Its water levels depend on the balance between river inflow and precipitation on one side and evaporation on the other.
Instrumental observations show that the sea level in Kazakhstan’s sector fell from minus 26.82 metres in 1996 to minus 29.27 metres in 2025, a decline of 2.45 metres over three decades. At the Kulaly Island monitoring station, the average level reached minus 29.42 metres in July 2026, the lowest recorded during the monitoring period cited by the institute.
The northeastern Caspian is particularly vulnerable because its waters are shallow, generally around three to six metres deep, and the seabed slopes gently. Even a relatively small decline in water levels can therefore expose extensive areas of seabed and push the shoreline far inland.
According to the Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, the area covered by water in the studied northeastern region decreased by approximately 16,384 square kilometres between 2000 and 2025. Satellite images also show newly exposed areas near Kulaly Island and the Tyuleniy Archipelago between 2021 and 2026.
Although the Caspian Sea has experienced fluctuations throughout its history, scientists say climate change and human activity are contributing to the current decline. Rising regional temperatures have increased evaporation, while reduced precipitation has also played a role.
Human activities add further pressure by reducing the amount of river water reaching the sea. Dams regulate river flows, and water is extracted across the basin for irrigation and other uses. Reservoir management decisions can also influence how much water ultimately reaches the Caspian.
The shrinking sea is creating serious challenges for wildlife, particularly the Caspian seal, a species found nowhere else in the world. Its population has fallen from around one million to approximately 100,000 over the past century.
Researchers say the area of islands used by seals as seasonal resting sites has declined more than 15-fold since 1995. As the sea retreats, some isolated islands become connected to the mainland, making them less suitable as refuges from human activity.
Seal researcher Assel Baimukanova described how an island known as New Durnev changed between research visits in 2021 and 2023. Thousands of seals had gathered there, but the island later expanded and became accessible by car before eventually connecting to the mainland.
The loss of isolated resting sites is pushing seals towards areas with greater human activity, including fishing, shipping, tourism and oil and gas operations.
Warming temperatures are creating an additional threat. Caspian seals give birth on winter ice, but warmer winters are making the ice thinner and less stable. This reduces the chances of newborn pups surviving.
The retreating sea is also affecting wetlands, fisheries, ports, shipping and other coastal infrastructure. As more seabed is exposed, communities and industries along the coastline may face increasing environmental and economic difficulties.
Climate projections suggest that the Caspian Sea could continue to shrink throughout the 21st century, although the exact scale of the decline remains uncertain. Research by hydroclimate scientist Dr Sifan Koriche projects that sea levels could fall by as much as eight metres by the end of the century under an intermediate climate scenario, with substantial differences between models.
Koriche estimates that a five-metre decline could expose around 77,000 square kilometres of seabed in the northern Caspian. He cautioned that the entire sea is unlikely to experience an Aral Sea-like collapse because its central and southern basins are considerably deeper. However, the shallow northern region, which accounts for roughly a quarter to a third of the Caspian’s water body, could face significant desiccation.
The future decline is not inevitable at the same scale under every scenario. Koriche’s research suggests that human water extraction could contribute up to an additional seven metres of decline under certain conditions.
Scientists say responses should combine efforts to reduce pressure on the sea with measures to adapt to changes that are already occurring. Priorities include better water management across the Caspian basin, particularly the Volga River system, improved monitoring and data sharing protection of vulnerable ecosystems and adaptation of ports and coastal infrastructure.
Kazakhstan has proposed an interstate programme to conserve the Caspian Sea’s water resources. The five countries bordering the sea are also working on a 2026–2036 action plan under the Tehran Convention to improve monitoring, assess the effects of changing water levels and develop adaptation measures.
Researchers emphasise that coordinated action by all five Caspian countries will be essential to address the crisis and protect the sea’s ecosystems and coastal communities.