Climate change is increasing drought risks across southern Africa, threatening livestock farming and potentially widening the economic gap between wealthy and poorer pastoralists, according to a new study. Researchers found that hotter, drier seasons and increasingly erratic rainfall could reduce the number of livestock the land can support, undermining the livelihoods of rural communities.
The study examined Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe, where many communities depend on cattle, sheep and goats for their income and food security. Livestock rearing takes place across approximately 43% of Africa’s land, making changing rainfall patterns a major concern for pastoralist livelihoods.
Pastoralists depend on seasonal rains to grow vegetation that provides fodder for their animals throughout the year. Herds also serve as a form of savings, allowing farmers to sell animals when they need cash. However, selling livestock during droughts can be difficult because animals lose weight, prices fall and many farmers try to sell at the same time. Transport, market demand and disease can further limit their options.
Researchers used computer simulations combining observed and projected rainfall, livestock numbers and community wellbeing data. The model examined how pastoralists make decisions, including whether to buy supplementary feed or sell animals in response to changing weather conditions.
The findings suggest that increasingly severe droughts could reduce livestock populations and the overall wealth of pastoralist communities. However, the effects would not be shared equally. Wealthier farmers are more likely to afford additional feed during dry periods, helping their animals survive while poorer farmers may be forced to sell livestock at lower prices.
Over time, wealthier owners could acquire a larger share of the remaining livestock, further concentrating wealth and worsening existing inequalities. The researchers warn that climate change could therefore deepen economic divisions in communities already dependent on unpredictable weather.
The study also examined two common interventions: providing supplementary livestock feed and issuing early warnings about drought. Both can help farmers cope with difficult conditions, but each has limitations. Providing feed on a large scale may allow herd sizes to grow beyond what local vegetation can sustainably support, increasing pressure on grasslands, wildlife and other natural resources.
Improved seasonal forecasts alone may also benefit wealthier farmers disproportionately. They often have the resources to sell animals before drought conditions worsen and purchase more livestock when favourable rainfall returns. Poorer households may receive the same warnings but lack the money, transport or market access needed to respond.
Researchers found that combining forecasts with practical support could help reduce these inequalities. Assistance could include providing supplementary feed to vulnerable farmers who cannot act on warnings independently and helping households manage herd sizes before severe droughts arrive.
One promising approach is the use of mobile slaughtering trucks which enable pastoralists to sell livestock more easily before drought causes animals to lose value. In South Africa, the company Meat Naturally has been working with Conservation International on this approach.
The researchers concluded that coordinated interventions could reduce the unintended consequences of individual measures while helping protect vulnerable households and manage livestock numbers sustainably. They said computer modelling can help identify where support is most needed and how different strategies may work under future climate conditions.
As rainfall patterns become less predictable, traditional methods of managing herds may no longer provide sufficient protection. The study highlights the need for climate adaptation strategies that combine reliable forecasts, accessible markets and targeted assistance to prevent worsening drought conditions from deepening rural poverty and inequality.