As Australia heads into its notorious severe weather season, the Bureau of Meteorology has issued a stark warning: the remainder of 2024 is set to bring higher-than-normal temperatures, along with an increased risk of extreme weather events. From heatwaves and bushfires to potential flooding and severe storms, the country could be facing multiple hazards at once.
Nation on Alert for Extreme Weather
The severe weather season, which typically runs from October to April, has already made an early start. In recent weeks, Australians have witnessed extreme heat sweeping across the country, powerful winds in the southeast, floods in Tasmania, and damaging hailstorms in parts of Victoria. With these events already occurring, the Bureau’s forecast of an unusually warm spring is raising concerns nationwide.
The Bureau’s latest briefing, presented by Matt Collopy, General Manager for Environmental Prediction, highlights the pressing need for Australians to prepare for the months ahead. “The rest of 2024 is expected to be warmer than usual, and the risk of extreme heat events is heightened,” Collopy stated during a presentation at the National Situation Room in Canberra.
What to Expect in 2024
Australia’s climate is influenced by large-scale weather patterns, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Currently, both the Pacific and Indian Oceans are in neutral conditions, but the chance of a La Niña developing remains high. This increases the likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions in some areas, which could lead to river flooding, particularly in Tasmania. However, the Bureau warns that the outlook is less predictable than usual due to the neutral conditions.
In contrast, Western and Central Victoria are experiencing drought conditions, with below-average river flows. This region faces a heightened risk of bushfires, and the overall fire risk across northeastern Australia and parts of South Australia is also a concern. Meanwhile, the Bureau anticipates a summer bushfire outlook to be released in November, but Australians are urged to remain vigilant for fire risks.
Another key risk this spring is marine heatwaves, especially in the Tasman Sea. Continued high sea temperatures could lead to significant impacts on marine ecosystems. Additionally, those living in and around Canberra have been warned of the potential for thunderstorm asthma, a rare but serious weather-induced health risk that peaks from October to December.
Preparing for the Worst
With the chance of multiple extreme events occurring simultaneously, or in rapid succession, across different regions of Australia, preparedness is key. The Bureau’s outlook serves as an essential tool for governments, emergency services, and the public to stay informed and ready.
“Extreme weather is becoming a more frequent part of our lives,” Collopy noted. “We need to be prepared for these hazards, and that includes looking beyond short-term forecasts to understand what’s coming in the next few months.”
The reality of more frequent and intense extreme weather events is not just a seasonal issue but part of a broader trend linked to climate change. As global temperatures continue to rise, Australians can expect more extreme heat events and a heightened risk of bushfires. Droughts, especially in the country’s southwest and southeast, are likely to become more severe, while short-duration extreme rainfall is expected to increase in most regions.
The Road Ahead
While advancements in forecasting are helping Australians prepare for severe weather, the long-term solution lies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Without significant efforts to curb global warming, extreme weather events will continue to rise in both frequency and intensity, putting more lives and livelihoods at risk.
As the severe weather season begins, Australians are being urged to stay alert, monitor forecasts, and take the necessary precautions. Whether it’s preparing homes for bushfire risks, staying informed about heat events, or being ready for severe storms, the next few months are likely to test the resilience of communities across the country.