A new study published in Nature reveals that the average duration of the longest annual drought periods could be 10 days longer by the end of this century than previously predicted. This new estimate, based on improved climate modeling techniques, indicates that the risks posed by droughts to societies and ecosystems may be more severe than previously thought.
Researchers led by Irina Petrova and Diego Miralles examined drought projections from multiple climate models under moderate and high-emissions scenarios (IPCC’s SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). They calibrated these projections using historical data from 1998 to 2018, focusing on the longest annual dry spells the number of consecutive dry days each year.
Key Findings
The study suggests that drought periods could extend by 42–44% on average compared to earlier predictions.
The global longest annual dry spell could increase by 10 days between 2080 and 2100, compared to previous estimates.
In North America, southern Africa, and Madagascar, the calibrated models predict twice as large increases in drought duration compared to earlier models.
Conversely, in Central–East Asia, the study projects shorter annual dry spells, with a threefold decrease in drought periods under both emissions scenarios, signaling an increased risk of frequent rainfall and flooding in these regions.
Implications
The findings call for a reassessment of global drought risks and stress the importance of correcting biases in existing climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions. With droughts expected to become more severe in many regions, these insights will be critical in informing more effective adaptation strategies to mitigate the environmental and societal impacts of prolonged dry periods.