India has warmed at a slower rate than other parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the past several decades. While this might seem like good news amid the global climate crisis, scientists warn it’s not a reason for comfort. The culprit behind this phenomenon is a thick blanket of aerosols tiny particles suspended in the air from industrial emissions, fossil fuel combustion, and crop burning. These aerosols reflect sunlight and create a temporary cooling effect, but they are also responsible for dangerous levels of air pollution, resulting in millions of deaths annually. The country now faces a dangerous trade-off between curbing toxic pollution and accelerating climate warming, with serious implications for public health, environmental sustainability, and economic development.
A Climate Puzzle Unfolding Over India
India is warming but more slowly than expected. According to satellite data released by NASA in January 2025, since the 1950s, the country has seen a temperature increase of around 0.6°C, significantly less than the average rise across the Northern Hemisphere. At first glance, this seems like a rare piece of good news in the climate change narrative. However, leading climate scientists are sounding the alarm that this anomaly is anything but comforting. Instead, it could be masking deeper, more dangerous problems.
The reason behind this slower rate of warming lies in the atmosphere above India, particularly over the Indo-Gangetic Plains. These regions are often enveloped in a dense layer of aerosols microscopic particles released from vehicles, factories, burning crop stubble, and coal-fired power plants. These aerosols act like tiny mirrors, reflecting sunlight back into space and preventing it from heating the Earth’s surface. The result? A temporary cooling effect that can delay surface warming.
Aerosols: The Hidden Climate Modifier
Dr. Loretta J Mickley, senior research fellow at Harvard University, explains that aerosols can both reflect and absorb solar radiation. “They reduce the amount of solar energy reaching the ground, which leads to a cooling effect. But this is a short-term fix masking a long-term problem,” she says. Unlike carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that trap heat over decades or even centuries, aerosols have a much shorter lifespan in the atmosphere weeks to months. Yet their effects are dramatic and unpredictable.
What makes India’s case particularly complex is the presence of black carbon a type of aerosol that absorbs heat rather than reflecting it. Emitted primarily from crop residue burning, diesel engines, and industrial processes, black carbon not only warms the atmosphere but also contributes to the melting of Himalayan glaciers. In short, aerosols in India are both cooling and heating agents, their impact varying with altitude, season, and composition.
A 2021 study in Environmental Research further highlighted the complexities of aerosol behavior. During Delhi’s first COVID-19 lockdown (March-May 2020), when emissions dropped sharply, researchers observed a surprising 2-4°C decrease in nighttime land surface temperatures. This challenged the assumption that cleaner air would immediately lead to surface warming and illustrated how deeply misunderstood aerosol dynamics remain in India.
Unintended Consequences of Cleaning the Air
While aerosols might be holding back rapid warming, they’re exacting a heavy toll on public health. “Air pollution in India causes between 1.5 to 2.1 million premature deaths every year,” says Dr. David Shumway Jones, professor of global health at Harvard University. These tiny particles, particularly PM2.5, are capable of penetrating deep into human lungs and bloodstream, leading to respiratory diseases, heart problems, strokes, and even cognitive decline.
Reports like the “State of Global Air 2024” underline how India’s cities many of which rank among the world’s most polluted are grappling with a dual crisis: slowing warming due to aerosols and rising mortality from the same source. The irony is hard to ignore. Any large-scale effort to reduce pollution, such as shutting down coal-fired plants or banning crop burning, could make the air cleaner but may also speed up the pace of climate change in the short term.
Dr. Bhargav Krishna from the Delhi-based Sustainable Futures Collaborative calls this India’s “dangerous trade-off.” He argues that current environmental and health policies are often siloed. “We must begin to look at climate change, air quality, energy transitions, and health as interconnected systems. Otherwise, we risk solving one problem while worsening another,” he says.
The Impact on Agriculture, Labour, and Livelihoods
This paradox has wide-ranging implications for India’s future, particularly in agriculture and labor-intensive industries. Ground-level ozone, which increases as aerosols decline and temperatures rise, is a major threat to crop yields. Additionally, rising heat will put enormous stress on outdoor workers farmers, construction laborers, and transport workers already vulnerable to heat strokes, dehydration, and productivity losses.
As the demand for air conditioning and refrigeration rises, so too does the country’s energy burden. If this growing demand is met through fossil fuels, the cycle of emissions and aerosol production could intensify, further complicating India’s climate mitigation efforts. Alternatively, a swift shift to clean energy is expensive and logistically challenging, especially in rural and underserved areas.
A Warning Beyond Borders
India’s cooling paradox is not just a domestic issue it serves as a global cautionary tale. As other developing nations undergo rapid industrialization, similar atmospheric patterns may emerge. Already, Southeast Asia and parts of Africa are reporting elevated aerosol levels. The challenge now is to decouple economic growth from pollution and find ways to reduce emissions without causing abrupt climate shifts that could further destabilize vulnerable ecosystems and communities.
Scientists like Roxy Mathew Koll from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune believe more research is needed to understand the interaction between aerosols, cloud cover, and surface temperature. “The troposphere-stratosphere dynamics, local weather patterns, and monsoon behavior could all be contributing to the trend. But without deeper study, we are only guessing,” Koll says.
The Road Ahead: Integrated Solutions and Unified Policies
The solution to this complex paradox lies in adopting an integrated, long-term strategy. India must simultaneously:
- Invest in clean and renewable energy sources to reduce dependency on fossil fuels.
- Improve public transportation and enforce strict emission norms to cut urban pollution.
- Promote sustainable agriculture practices that minimize the need for crop burning.
- Develop cooling technologies that are energy-efficient and climate-friendly.
- Expand health infrastructure, particularly for respiratory and cardiovascular care.
Moreover, there needs to be better coordination between ministries handling health, energy, environment, urban planning, and agriculture. Policies should not be reactive but anticipatory built around projections of future climate and pollution scenarios.
Public awareness also plays a critical role. Citizens must understand that climate and air quality are two sides of the same coin, and both affect everyday life from the air we breathe to the food we grow and the jobs we perform.
Conclusion: A Delicate Balance
India’s slower warming might appear to be a stroke of luck in the face of global climate chaos, but it’s a fragile and ultimately harmful illusion. The toxic haze blunting the sun’s heat also blunts human health, economic potential, and ecological resilience. As the country moves forward, it must strike a delicate balance reducing pollution without accelerating climate harm, boosting development without deepening inequality, and protecting people without compromising the planet.
There are no easy solutions, but ignoring the paradox only deepens the problem. The need of the hour is to develop holistic, science-driven policies that can navigate the dangerous trade-offs of a warming world and an increasingly polluted one. Only through such a united and informed approach can India and the world hope to breathe easier while securing a stable climate future.
Written by Vaishali Verma
Sub-editor, DisastersNews