The 2025 Southwest Monsoon forecasted to bring above-normal rainfall across much of South Asia, is being hailed as both a potential blessing and a looming challenge for the region. According to the latest outlook by the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) the June–September season could witness significantly higher-than-average rainfall in most areas, excluding parts of the north, east, and northeast which may face drier conditions.
Monsoon: Lifeline for South Asia
The monsoon season is the dominant climatic force shaping the livelihoods, agriculture, and economies of South Asia. Countries like India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan depend on it for up to 90% of their annual rainfall. The water it delivers is crucial for irrigating crops, generating hydropower, and replenishing drinking water supplies.
In rural South Asia, where rain-fed agriculture remains widespread, the timing and volume of monsoon rains directly influence the success of major crops like rice, maize, and millet. Even minor shifts can ripple through supply chains, affecting food prices and household incomes across the region.
What the 2025 Forecast Reveals
The SASCOF consensus derived from joint climate modelling by national agencies across nine countries, indicates a wetter-than-average monsoon for most of the subcontinent. This outlook was shaped by key climatic indicators:
- ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation): Neutral conditions are expected through the season, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña will dominate.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Its evolution remains a variable to watch as it can sharply alter rainfall patterns.
- Snow Cover Trends: Exceptionally low snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere’s winter and spring among the lowest in six decades may contribute to stronger monsoonal activity.
Rainfall Brings Rewards and Risks
While abundant rain boosts agricultural and hydropower prospects, it also raises red flags for flood-prone regions. Urban centres with poor drainage, low-lying coastal zones, and river basins in countries like Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan are particularly vulnerable.
Health risks, such as outbreaks of waterborne diseases, and infrastructure damage from flash floods and landslides, are common side effects of excessive rainfall. To mitigate these threats, experts are urging governments to invest in early warning systems, upgrade drainage and irrigation infrastructure, and bolster disaster preparedness efforts.
Regional Collaboration Through SASCOF
Since its founding in 2010 under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), SASCOF has emerged as a key platform for regional climate cooperation. By enabling shared forecasting tools and knowledge, it helps countries translate broad seasonal projections into localised warnings and sector-specific strategies.
SASCOF coordination supports national efforts in:
- Climate-smart agriculture
- Energy planning for hydropower
- Urban flood resilience
- Public health readiness
- Balancing Opportunity with Preparedness
With higher rainfall on the horizon, 2025 offers a moment of promise for agriculture and water resource gains in South Asia. Yet the same conditions heighten disaster risk in a region already strained by climate extremes.
As policymakers, farmers, and emergency responders gear up for the monsoon, SASCOF’s forecast serves as both a guide and a caution. The key to resilience lies in smart preparation ensuring that the season’s blessings don’t become burdens.