Forests long hailed as nature’s best defense against climate change are fast becoming major climate threats. A new policy brief released by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) warns that wildfires are transforming boreal, Amazonian, and Australian forests into powerful carbon emitters undermining global climate targets and exposing critical flaws in current forest-based carbon offset policies.
Titled Beyond Planting Trees Taking Advantage of Satellite Observations to Improve Forest Carbon Management and Wildfire Prevention, the report urges a radical rethink of global carbon sequestration strategies. It reveals how climate change, rising temperatures, and droughts are altering forests so profoundly that planting trees alone may actually increase the risk of wildfires and the very emissions such projects aim to reduce.
The myth of static forest carbon storage
The research dismantles the longstanding assumption that forests can be permanently relied upon as carbon sinks. Instead, it paints a more complex and urgent picture: forests are dynamic systems increasingly vulnerable to heatwaves, pests, drought, and fire. When those stressors converge, carbon stored over decades can be released back into the atmosphere in just days.
Despite this reality, most voluntary carbon markets and forest-based climate initiatives fail to account for wildfire-driven emissions. These initiatives reward tree-planting but rarely include safeguards or strategies to mitigate the rising risks of fire.
Satellites and strategy: the future of forest policy
The UNU-INWEH team proposes integrating satellite technology into climate strategies to create a real-time, responsive system of forest management. Earth observation tools, they argue, can detect where trees are growing too densely or where drought conditions are intensifying fire risk well before disaster strikes.
This data, if fed into policy frameworks and carbon credit markets, could revolutionize how forests are managed. For instance, high-risk areas could be strategically excluded from carbon offset projects. At the same time, active measures like controlled burns, thinning, or even grazing could be introduced to lower fuel loads and retain soil moisture.
Climate finance at a crossroads
The brief critiques the structure of voluntary carbon markets (VCMs), which are growing rapidly as governments and corporations pursue net-zero pledges. VCMs rely heavily on forest credits, yet most of these credits assume long-term carbon storage and fail to consider wildfire-related emissions.
This oversight could turn well-intentioned climate investments into carbon liabilities especially in fire-prone, warming regions. The researchers urge a global overhaul: carbon mitigation policies must include climate-resilient, adaptive forest management rooted in hydrology, soil science, and fire behavior.
Key recommendations from the brief include:
- A global satellite-based platform to monitor forest conditions in near-real time
- Exclusion of high-fire-risk regions from carbon offset programs
- Reassessment of tree-planting efforts in drought-prone or arid areas
- Use of controlled grazing and harvesting to reduce fuel and retain soil moisture
- Revised carbon credit verification systems that reflect dynamic fire and climate risks
A call for global coordination
As climate-driven wildfires reshape entire ecosystems, the need for a new forest management paradigm is urgent. The report emphasizes that carbon pricing, international agreements like the Paris Accord, and private-sector carbon commitments must evolve to meet the new risks posed by warming forests.
In particular the authors call for a coordinated global response through a centralized platform that integrates remote sensing data into climate finance and wildfire prevention efforts. This would ensure transparency, align financial incentives with ecological realities, and help prevent the loss of hard-won carbon gains