Europe and the world are heading toward uncharted climate territory. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns there’s now an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will break 2024’s record as the warmest year ever. Even more striking: there’s an 86% chance that at least one of those years will temporarily cross the critical 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
While these temperature spikes may be short-lived, they’re still troubling. The latest WMO update, produced by the UK’s Met Office, forecasts a 70% chance that the 5-year average from 2025–2029 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels a sharp jump from 47% last year. The report stresses that every fraction of a degree matters, pushing the planet closer to climate tipping points.
The Arctic is heating even faster. Over the coming five winters, the region is expected to warm at 2.4°C above recent averages more than 3.5 times the global mean. Sea ice loss in areas like the Barents Sea and Bering Sea is expected to continue.
Rainfall patterns are also shifting dramatically. The May–September 2025–2029 forecast predicts wetter conditions in northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska, and Siberia, while places like the Amazon are likely to face further drying. South Asia, already experiencing wetter-than-average years, is expected to see that trend continue.
WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett issued a stark warning: “We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years.” She stressed the urgent need for science-based planning and adaptation.
Importantly, the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C refers to long-term warming over at least 20 years not short-term spikes. Yet these temporary overshoots are becoming more frequent, highlighting the rising baseline of global temperatures. The central estimate for warming from 2015–2034 is now 1.44°C, with a possible range from 1.22°C to 1.54°C.
The world is quickly running out of time. COP30 later this year will review national climate action plans. Scientists insist that every tenth of a degree avoided can reduce the severity of future disasters. In this rapidly warming world, awareness, preparation, and bold action are no longer optional they’re necessary.