A major international study has confirmed that human-caused climate change is rapidly making droughts around the world worse. The findings, published in the journal Nature under the title “Warming accelerates global drought severity,” show that rising temperatures are drying out the land faster than ever before not just by reducing rainfall, but by increasing the atmosphere’s demand for moisture.
What’s Driving the Worsening Drought?
The key factor behind this trend is something called atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) essentially, how much water the atmosphere “wants” to take from the land, plants, and water bodies. As the air gets warmer, it demands more moisture, causing faster evaporation and drying out soils even when rainfall hasn’t changed much.
Between 1981 and 2022, this “thirst” from the atmosphere accounted for about 40% of the global increase in drought severity. In places like Africa, Australia, and the western United States, AED was responsible for more than 50% of worsening drought trends. In Australia alone, drought-affected land grew by 119% in just five years. Some parts of the western U.S. and southern South America saw increases of over 140%.
Not Just Less Rain Hotter Air Is the Problem
Using detailed climate data, scientists created high-resolution drought indices by combining rainfall records with AED data. They found that when AED was held at past levels in computer models, the drying trend almost disappeared. But when rainfall stayed the same and AED was allowed to increase, the drought conditions worsened dramatically three times more than observed.
This clearly shows that today’s droughts are not only about less rainfall they’re also being powered by heat-driven drying from the atmosphere itself.
Where Are the Hardest-Hit Regions?
Africa, Australia, the western U.S., and southern South America are facing the worst of this trend. These regions saw AED contribute to as much as 65% of the increase in drought severity. For example, between 1981 and 2017 and the last five years, drought-affected land in parts of the western U.S. rose by 141%, while southern South America saw a 163% increase.
Even wetter parts of the world are suffering. In 2022, a shocking 82% of Europe was under drought, with nearly half experiencing moderate to severe levels. Globally, that same year, 30% of all land was in moderate to extreme drought 42% of which was directly linked to higher AED levels.
The Feedback Loop: Drought Makes Warming Worse
In many regions, scientists found that rainfall alone couldn’t explain the severity of droughts. In Europe’s 2022 drought, soil and river moisture levels were far below normal even though rainfall hadn’t dropped as sharply. This is because AED was drawing moisture out of the soil and plants faster than ever.
As plants dry up, they cool the air less, which leads to more heating and drying a dangerous feedback loop that intensifies both drought and warming.
This study provides strong evidence that droughts are becoming longer, stronger, and more widespread especially over the last five years. And unless urgent action is taken, the situation is expected to get worse.
While rainfall still plays the biggest role in droughts, AED’s rising influence is critical, especially in dry regions. In some areas, AED’s impact may even surpass the effect of declining rainfall.
By separating the roles of AED and rainfall using advanced climate models, this research gives scientists a clearer picture of what’s really driving modern droughts. It strengthens the link to climate change and helps improve how future droughts are predicted and managed.
The researchers urge governments and communities to act quickly. This means updating water management strategies, promoting drought-resistant crops, and developing early warning systems that track AED trends. Without action, countries especially those already vulnerable face rising threats of water shortages, food insecurity, ecological damage, and economic disruption.
The message is clear: we must adapt to a hotter, drier future or risk serious consequences.