In our daily lives we may not always articulate them, but many of us operate with an internal compass a set of values like empathy, fairness, respect for life or the pursuit of truth. Now, as humanity stares down escalating systemic risks from pandemics and climate change to technological disruptions, democratic erosion and geopolitical tensions our survival depends on whether we can apply those same values on a global scale.
This was the challenge taken up by the Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA). As outlined in our report, Facing Global Risks with Honest Hope, we confront a stark truth: our current tools and methods to assess and respond to risk are no longer enough. Systemic risks are not only more complex they are more interconnected, more unpredictable, and more likely to produce cascading, global shocks.
So, what do we do when the old models no longer serve?
A New Set of Principles for a Systemic Age
ASRA convened a transdisciplinary group of risk practitioners to explore this question. Together, we crafted eleven guiding principles for systemic risk assessment and response principles that prioritize the sanctity of life (human and non-human), justice, humility, pluralism, and transformation.
These aren’t abstract ideals they’re working values meant to ground a new kind of risk governance. Risk is no longer just about probability and loss; it’s about relationships, power, and the vulnerabilities that accumulate across time, systems, and borders.
Testing the Theory: Eight Pilots Across the World
In 2024, ASRA launched eight pilot projects to put this methodology to the test from global frameworks for existential threats, to grassroots efforts in São Paulo’s informal settlements, and biodiversity planning in Papua New Guinea and Tanzania.
The early lessons are rich and instructive. Systems mapping, for example, proved to be a powerful if challenging way to visualize interconnections and feedback loops across sectors. This technique helps practitioners identify leverage points and anticipate how disruptions might ripple through complex systems.
Systemic Risk Response: More Than Crisis Management
ASRA defines Systemic Risk Response (SRR) as any deliberate action to mitigate, adapt to or transform away from the harms of systemic risk. Importantly we found that SRR is not just about preparing for future disasters it’s about reimagining how we respond, using criteria rooted in compassion, equity, and shared agency.
Imagine if we had applied these principles during COVID-19. How might decisions around vaccine distribution, lockdowns, or economic support have shifted if justice and collective care were embedded in response design?
The criteria also served as conversation tools especially when stakeholders disagreed. Through storytelling and shared reflection, these principles helped bridge divides, anchoring people in common values even when their worldviews differed.
The Language Barrier and the Invitation
A persistent challenge across all pilots was language. Systemic risk is, by nature, complex. But too often, the terminology becomes a barrier to inclusion. We must translate, not simplify making systemic risk frameworks accessible to communities most affected by them. This is about democratizing knowledge, not dumbing it down.
Because in the end, we cannot act in isolation. The cascading nature of systemic risks means that no one is immune, but some are hit harder and first. Responses must be shaped with not for those on the frontlines.
Looking Ahead: From Ideas to Tools
At the UNDRR Global Platform and our Current of Change symposium, we took a crucial next step: unveiling the demo version of STEER (Systemic Tool for Exploring and Evaluating Risks). This first-of-its-kind tool was developed from our pilot learnings and is designed to guide real-time systemic risk assessment and response, grounded in the ASRA principles.
STEER is a practical reflection of our values in action. And it’s just the beginning.
Systemic risks are not going away. But by choosing to face them honestly and collectively, grounded in shared principles and guided by new tools, we open the door to real resilience. We stop treating risk as a technical problem for experts and start treating it as a shared challenge of care, justice, and transformation.