PANAMA CITY – For the first time in over 40 years of record-keeping, a critical oceanographic process known as upwelling failed to occur in the Gulf of Panama in 2025. This unprecedented event, documented by scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI), is likely to have significant consequences for the region’s fisheries and coral reefs, which depend on this natural phenomenon for their survival.
A Vital Climate Process
Upwelling is a seasonal process driven by northern trade winds that brings cold, nutrient-rich water from the deep ocean to the surface. It is a vital part of the marine ecosystem, as the nutrients fuel the growth of phytoplankton and other marine life, creating highly productive fisheries. The cooler water also provides a thermal refuge for coral reefs, protecting them from heat stress. For four decades, this upwelling event has been a consistent and predictable feature of Panama’s dry season, from January to April.
Weakened Winds Linked to Failure
In a study published in the journal PNAS, researchers suggest that a significant reduction in wind patterns was the cause of this failure. The weakening of the trade winds was not sufficient to drive the upwelling process, leading to diminished productivity and a lack of the typical seasonal drop in water temperatures.
While the exact cause and full consequences are still being investigated, this event highlights how climate disruption can rapidly alter fundamental oceanic processes that have supported coastal fishing communities for thousands of years. The failure of this natural event also underscores the urgent need for better monitoring of tropical upwelling systems, which are crucial to both ecological health and the socioeconomic well-being of coastal communities.