A scientifically trained observer has identified a potentially extraordinary meteorological event: winds from the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) may have crossed the western Himalayan mountain range and reached the Tibetan Plateau. If confirmed, this would be an unprecedented occurrence, as the Himalayas have long acted as a crucial barrier, keeping the moisture-laden winds within India and leaving Tibet arid.
A Challenge to Geographic Norms
The existence and activity of the Indian monsoon are predicated on the Himalayas serving as a natural boundary. The Tibetan plateau typically receives its limited precipitation from Western Disturbances during the winter and spring. The potential for the SWM to breach this barrier signals a profound change in the region’s fundamental climatic processes.
The initial observation came from Manish Mehta, a glaciologist with the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG), who noted from a satellite map that moisture appeared to move toward Tibet from above Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Ladakh in the first week of September.
Expert Analysis and the Role of Western Disturbances
When questioned about the possibility, climate scientists offered cautious but compelling explanations. Raghu Murtugudde from the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay suggested that strong advection into the Himalayan foothills could create rising air that pushes moisture northward, especially through gaps in the mountains.
Roxy Mathew Koll from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, raised the possibility that extratropical weather systems, such as the unusually frequent Western Disturbances this year, may be interacting with the monsoon’s moisture, carrying it beyond the subcontinent. The increased frequency of these disturbances during the SWM season is itself an active area of research.
If this event is confirmed, it would provide further evidence that warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is altering some of the most fundamental climatic processes, with wide-ranging and unpredictable impacts on the entire region.