WASHINGTON, D.C. — A decade after the landmark Paris Agreement, governments worldwide are collectively planning to produce more than twice the volume of fossil fuels needed to keep global warming within safe limits, according to a new report released on September 22, 2025. The flagship Production Gap duction Gap
The assessment, backed by the UN and authored by leading research institutes, finds that planned fossil fuel production in 2030 will exceed the level consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit by more than 120%. It also surpasses the 2°C benchmark by 77%. The report notes this gap has widened since the last analysis in 2023.
• Coal remains the most misaligned fossil fuel. Global coal output in 2030 is projected to be 500% higher than the median 1.5°C-aligned pathway.
• Gas production is planned to be 92% over the Paris-aligned limit for 2030, while oil production is 31% above the benchmark.
• Governments are collectively planning for higher levels of coal production through 2035, gas through 2050, and oil even beyond mid-century.
Major Producers Ramp Up Extraction
Several major fossil-fuel-producing nations are identified as driving this expansion. For instance, Nigeria recently doubled its 2030 oil target, and Brazil projects a 47% jump in its oil output by the same year. China and India are also cited for backing slower coal declines than previously anticipated. The report profiles 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries, which are responsible for about 80% of global fossil fuel production.
To align with the Paris Agreement, the report states that fossil fuel production must decline rapidly. Coal use, for example, must be nearly phased out by 2040, while oil and gas production need to fall by around 75% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels. Current trajectories, however, project global fossil fuel output in 2050 at more than 4.5 times the 1.5°C-consistent level.
Warnings and a Just Transition
The report emphasizes that every year of inaction raises the cost and pace of future reductions. It calls for an explicit reversal of fossil fuel expansion plans and the integration of production cuts into national energy transition strategies.
“To avert the worst climate impacts with minimal economic disruption, governments need to commit to no new fossil fuels and back the clean industries of the future,” stated Olivier Bois von Kursk, a co-author of the report and a policy advisor at the IISD. The authors also highlight the need for a “just transition,” with deliberate policies to support workers and communities that are currently dependent on fossil fuel industries.