BOSTON, MA — The critical link in the global supply chain, the Panama Canal, faces a growing risk of shipping disruptions due to increasing drought frequency and severity driven by climate change, according to a new paper by Northeastern University professor Samuel Munoz.
The canal, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, relies on the freshwater from its feeder, Gatun Lake, to operate the locks that raise and lower ships. Munoz’s research, published in Geophysical Research Letters, warns that this vulnerability will increase unless significant steps are taken toward emissions mitigation or proactive adaptation.
“The canal is vulnerable to drought. That vulnerability increases with climate change,” Munoz stated. “The models think that the more we warm things, the more severe and frequent these droughts become in Panama.”
High Emissions Lead to Disruptive Water Levels
Munoz used high-resolution climate projections to simulate future levels of Gatun Lake, finding that “disruptive low water conditions” became increasingly common under moderately high and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. This is primarily because Gatun Lake is fed by rainfall, and higher emissions are associated with a reduction in wet season rainfall and increased evaporation.
Historically, recent droughts, including one in 2023 and 2024, have already forced canal operators to reduce the number and weight of ships transiting the 50-mile-long waterway.
Mitigation Offers Stabilization
By using 27 different climate models, Munoz demonstrated that climate mitigation is key to stability. In scenarios where emissions are not mitigated, the amount of rain Panama receives decreases significantly while evaporation increases, making low lake levels more problematic.
“But in scenarios where we do more mitigation of greenhouse gases, there’s less change (in water levels) and it stabilizes more,” Munoz noted, highlighting that mitigation stabilizes water levels far more effectively than following the current middle emissions pathway.
Adaptation is Crucial for Global Trade
Given the central importance of the canal an average of 14,000 ships transit annually, including 40% of all U.S. container ships Munoz stressed that adaptation is vital if aggressive mitigation fails.
Panamanian authorities are already looking to the future with plans for adaptation, including constructing a new reservoir to supplement Gatun Lake and finding ways to more efficiently use existing water supplies. The reservoir’s role extends beyond shipping, as it also supplies hydroelectric power and drinking water for Panama City. Munoz concluded that “Smart management and mitigation are going to be key to keeping ships moving.”