Punjab, often called India rice bowl has re-emerged as the primary source of crop residue fires this season accounting for nearly 62 percent of incidents reported between September 15 and 29. Provisional government data shows a worrying resurgence of farm fires in the state even as the early pollution risk to the National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi begins to escalate.
A notable shift however is the growing contribution from Uttar Pradesh (UP), whose share of stubble burning has climbed to 27 percent in 2025 up significantly from just 3 percent in 2020.
Delhi’s Air Quality Signals Early Trouble
The return of extensive farm fires comes as Delhi’s air quality shows persistent signs of distress. September 2025 was the first September since 2016 where the average Air Quality Index (AQI) remained above 100 throughout the month. This threshold signals unhealthy air quality, indicating persistent pollution even before the peak winter smog season. Studies have previously estimated that stubble burning can contribute as much as 31 percent to Delhi’s worsening air quality.
Shifting Dynamics in Northern States
In the current early season data (September 15–29), Punjab recorded 96 fires, dominating the incidents. Uttar Pradesh has rapidly increased its share, recording 41 fires so far.
This shift marks a change from last year and previous trends:
• Between 2018 and 2022 Punjab consistently accounted for over 70 percent of national stubble burning.
• In 2024, Punjab’s share dropped to 29 percent as Madhya Pradesh surged to 44 percent of cases.
• In 2025, Punjab dominance has returned with UP stepping into the position previously held by Haryana. Haryana, by contrast, has seen a sharp drop from 60 fires this time last year to only seven so far this season.
The current trend suggests that while non-stubble sources like vehicle emissions, dust, and local biomass burning already keep Delhi’s pollution levels high, farm fires are expected to accelerate the air quality deterioration in the coming weeks as harvesting peaks across northern India. The next two months will be decisive in determining the severity of this year’s smog season.