Florida — The massive destruction left behind by Hurricane Ian has reignited debate among scientists and meteorologists about whether the decades-old Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale still captures the full danger of modern hurricanes.
As climate change drives stronger and more unpredictable storms, experts like Zachary Handlos, director of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at Georgia Tech, say it may be time to add a new, complementary system that better communicates the wide range of hurricane hazards not just wind speeds.
Developed in 1969 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Robert Simpson, the five-category scale remains the world’s most familiar hurricane measure. It classifies storms solely by sustained wind speed, ranging from Category 1 (least severe) to Category 5 (catastrophic).
“For anyone who follows hurricane coverage on TV, social media, or online the Saffir-Simpson scale is how we’ve long described hurricanes,” said Handlos. “But maximum wind speed isn’t the only danger.”
Beyond Wind: A Need for a Broader Framework
Handlos noted that the current scale fails to include storm surge, inland flooding, tornadoes, and storm size hazards that often cause the most deaths and destruction. He believes a more comprehensive system could better inform the public, combining wind data with other risk indicators for a fuller picture.
Such a system would require collaboration between government agencies, scientists, emergency managers, and the private sector. Any official update or addition to the scale would likely involve coordination with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Hurricane Center.
“If we can develop a new system that’s easy for the public to understand while capturing all hurricane threats, it could save lives in the future,” Handlos said.
Rising Temperatures, Rising Risks
While climate change hasn’t changed how hurricane strength is currently measured, it’s changing the conditions that shape these storms. Warmer oceans provide more heat energy for hurricanes to grow stronger, and rising global temperatures increase the atmosphere’s ability to hold moisture meaning heavier rainfall and more dangerous inland flooding.
Scientists also warn that hurricanes could start forming farther north and south than before, as sea surface temperatures rise in new regions.
Better Forecasts, But Tougher Communication
Advances in forecasting including the use of artificial intelligence and improved satellite and radar technology have made storm predictions far more accurate over the past two decades. Yet, communicating those risks effectively remains a challenge.
“Even with clear warnings, some people still choose not to evacuate because they’ve survived past storms,” Handlos said. “In today’s world of nonstop notifications and social media noise, it’s easy for urgent messages to get lost.”
As hurricanes grow more complex in a warming world, experts agree that better communication not just better forecasting could make the difference between life and death.