Jamaica is facing one of its most powerful storms in history as Hurricane Melissa barrels toward the island, threatening catastrophic flooding, landslides, and storm surge impacts. The country has never recorded a landfall this strong, not even during the devastating Hurricane Gilbert of 1988, which crossed the island as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds.
Meteorologists warn that Jamaica faces extreme inland flood risk, with 20 to 30 inches of rain expected to trigger flash floods and deadly mudslides. The mountainous terrain, combined with the volume of rain forecasted, could lead to widespread destruction across both rural and urban areas.
Although Jamaica is not typically vulnerable to high storm surges, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts 9 to 13 feet of inundation to the right of Melissa’s landfall point. This poses a serious risk to Kingston and surrounding coastal zones. Norman Manley International Airport, built on reclaimed land, could see flooding of up to 6 feet enough to shut down operations and isolate Port Royal, as seen during Hurricanes Ivan in 2004 and Dean in 2007.
Key infrastructure, including the Petrojam Refinery, Kingston Freeport Terminal, Soapberry Wastewater Plant, and Caribbean Maritime University, lies in areas susceptible to surge flooding. However, most residential neighborhoods are expected to avoid direct inundation, except for a few low-lying parts of west Kingston and Port Royal.
Melissa’s south-southwest approach is highly unusual. Most hurricanes strike Jamaica from the east, but this new angle could intensify storm surge effects, catching both communities and ecosystems unprepared. NOAA records over the past 175 years show that no major hurricane has ever made landfall on Jamaica’s south coast from this direction.
With top sustained winds exceeding 125 mph, Melissa joins a growing trend of rapidly intensifying storms in the Atlantic. This year’s hurricane season has already produced 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 4 major ones, placing it near the historical average. However, an alarming 80% of these hurricanes have reached Category 4 or 5 strength the highest rate ever recorded.
Scientists say global warming isn’t necessarily increasing the number of hurricanes, but it is fueling their intensity. Warmer oceans and moist air provide the perfect conditions for rapid intensification, a process Melissa underwent at an extraordinary rate rising from a tropical storm to a major hurricane in just over a day.
For Jamaicans, the coming hours will be critical. Authorities are urging residents to evacuate flood-prone areas, stock essential supplies, and stay indoors. Avoiding low-lying coastal zones, securing property, and preparing for power outages will be vital for survival as Hurricane Melissa bears down on the island.