A new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) suggests that China, India, and Indonesia the world three largest coal growth markets are on track to see their coal power use and emissions peak by 2030. The think tank calls this a potential “global breakthrough” in the fight against climate change.
Together, the three countries accounted for 73 percent of global coal consumption in 2024 and have been the biggest contributors to rising carbon dioxide emissions since the Paris Agreement. If all three nations successfully curb coal power growth within the decade, it would mark the first time that major coal-dependent economies collectively reverse fossil fuel expansion, reshaping the global energy landscape.
Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA co-founder and lead analyst, said that China’s clean energy surge has already put it on track for a coal peak. “China has added enough clean electricity generation to cover all new demand, and its power sector emissions have been falling since early 2024. Maintaining this pace means a coal power peak is imminent,” he said.
China’s progress has been led by record-breaking growth in solar and wind power. In 2024 alone, the country added 277 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity and another 212 GW in the first half of 2025. Wind power additions exceeded 80 GW in 2024 and are expected to cross 100 GW this year, making clean energy the primary driver behind the country’s falling emissions.
India, meanwhile, is advancing rapidly toward Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030. CREA noted that achieving this target could enable India to peak its power-sector CO₂ emissions within the next few years. The nation has already crossed the halfway mark, with record renewable additions and a booming domestic solar manufacturing industry that now produces 118 GW of solar modules annually.
“India’s clean electricity growth is finally taking off after years of slow progress,” said CREA analyst Manoj Kumar. “If this momentum continues, India could peak coal power before 2030. The challenge will be to strengthen grid flexibility, expand storage, and upgrade transmission networks.”
In Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto’s plan to install 100 GW of solar capacity could enable a similar emissions peak by 2030. However, CREA warned that the country’s current energy roadmap still gives priority to coal and gas projects, which could delay the transition. “Turning Indonesia’s ambition into a concrete clean energy roadmap is essential,” said CREA analyst Katherine Hasan. “Otherwise, the planned fossil expansion will undermine progress.”
While CREA analysis highlights strong political and economic momentum for clean energy, it also cautions that the post-2030 pathway remains uncertain. Without clear coal phase-down strategies, emissions may plateau instead of declining sharply. The report estimates that the difference could equal the emissions from 500 large coal-fired power plants by 2035 roughly equivalent to India’s entire CO₂ output in 2019.
Despite these challenges, CREA points to the rapid drop in solar and battery prices 60 and 50 percent respectively since 2022 as a major driver of clean energy adoption. With renewables now cheaper than coal in most regions and domestic manufacturing incentives on the rise, the transition is gaining unstoppable momentum.
If successful, China, India, and Indonesia would join other BRICS members such as Brazil, South Africa, and the UAE in having already peaked power-sector emissions, positioning the bloc as a surprising force for climate leadership.
As the world prepares for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, CREA’s findings could become a pivotal point in global climate discussions, offering renewed hope for a collective peak in fossil fuel emissions before 2030.