New Delhi – The Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP), the national capital region’s emergency framework for combating toxic air, is set for its fourth major revision in three years, raising serious concerns that constant tinkering is masking the system’s fundamental failure to act before pollution strikes.
Experts warn that despite a significant 2022 redesign that intended to transform GRAP into a pre-emptive framework taking action based on air quality forecasts the plan consistently fails due to a combination of faulty forecasting and weak on-ground implementation.
Pre-emptive Promise Undercut by Forecast Failures
The core principle of the 2022 overhaul was to link emergency measures to Air Quality Index (AQI) forecasts, invoking severe restrictions at least three days in advance of the AQI reaching critical levels. However, this system relies entirely on the accuracy of the Early Warning System (EWS) used by the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM).
The EWS has repeatedly proven unreliable this season. For example, on November 10 the system predicted “Very Poor” air (AQI 301-400) for the next day, but the AQI plunged unexpectedly into the “Severe” category (AQI 401-450), marking the first severe air day of the season. This mismatch between forecasts and ground reality has rendered the pre-emptive structure of GRAP almost meaningless, forcing authorities to invoke stages only after the haze has already settled in.
“After the 2022 revamp, measures were supposed to be implemented in advance, but we don’t see that happening. This is also due to a faulty forecasting system which is not always accurate,” stated Mukesh Khare, an IIT-Delhi professor who served on the former pollution control body.
Judicial Pressure Drives Latest Changes
The latest round of revisions submitted by the CAQM to the Supreme Court, is expected to be notified next week. These changes aim to move several restrictions to earlier stages to compensate for the reactive implementation cycle.
Notable proposals include:
- Work-From-Home Triggers: When Stage 3 (Severe) is invoked, Delhi-NCR governments may now be mandated to decide on restricting offices to 50% staff onsite, a measure previously reserved for Stage 4.
- Staggered Office Timings: Staggered timings for all public offices are proposed to begin at Stage 2 Very Poor instead of the current Stage 3.
These modifications follow a trend of judicial pressure that forced the CAQM to introduce stricter measures earlier in the cycle last December. For instance, bans on older diesel interstate buses were moved to Stage 2 instead of Stage 3 and the use of older BS4 diesel commercial vehicles was tightened.
However, experts like Dipankar Saha, former head of the CPCB’s air laboratory, argue that this constant “tinkering” is ineffective. He contends that the solution is not late-stage shifting, but rather establishing fixed measures in place all through winter and developing a robust, accurate forecasting system. The overall effectiveness of GRAP continues to be undermined by patchy compliance across sectors particularly construction, waste burning, and vehicle movement leaving residents to witness announcements on paper that rarely translate into meaningful relief from the smog.