India is poised to receive above-average monsoon rains in 2025, sparking optimism across the agricultural and economic sectors. With the monsoon season expected to bring 105% of the long-term average rainfall the country could witness a significant uplift in crop production price stability, and rural income.
Monsoon rains are vital for India’s economy, supplying nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and directly impacting farming, which supports over half the population. According to M. Ravichandran, a senior government official, the forecast offers a strong foundation for food security and economic resilience. It could help tame food inflation and maintain the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation targets, a key concern in recent months.
India’s rice exports, already the largest globally, are likely to gain from the favorable weather, ensuring robust output and stable international supply. The rains are expected to hit Kerala around June 1 and taper off by mid-September, following the traditional seasonal cycle.
While the forecast is broadly positive, some regions in the northwest, northeast, and southern Peninsular India may receive less-than-average rainfall. However the absence of El Niño often linked to weak monsoons adds confidence to this year’s projection.
With global weather patterns currently stable and domestic preparations underway India is bracing for a monsoon that could bring much-needed relief to farmers and momentum to its economic recovery.