Researchers worldwide are refining climate models to improve predictions of climate change impacts. These models simulate potential climate scenarios by incorporating data on Earth’s chemical, physical, and biological processes.
A significant international collaboration, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), allows scientists to compare and merge various models under standardized frameworks, thereby enhancing climate predictions. The latest phase, CMIP6, includes the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP), which focuses on identifying the specific contributions of factors like greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic activity to climate change.
In a recent study, Jones et al. detailed the contributions of the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre, specifically using their HadGEM3-GC3.1 model within DAMIP. They simulated near-surface air temperature responses to different human and natural influences globally and compared the results with those from other CMIP6 models.
The findings showed that HadGEM3-GC3.1’s temperature predictions aligned with those of other models. However, it revealed unique warming patterns over the Southern Ocean, especially in simulations focused on aerosol effects, where deep warm ocean waters surfaced, warming high southern latitudes while the rest of the globe cooled a pattern not observed in other models.
These insights could guide future efforts to integrate various climate drivers in model simulations, advancing the precision of climate forecasts. The researchers also urge other institutions to contribute to DAMIP for even more accurate climate predictions.