A groundbreaking study by IPE-Global and Esri India has revealed a worrying trend in India’s climate, with traditionally flood-prone areas now experiencing droughts and drought-affected regions witnessing floods. This “swapping trend” is reshaping the nation’s climate risk landscape, putting millions of lives and livelihoods in jeopardy.
The research, which analyzed climate data from 1973 to 2023, found that over 85% of India’s districts are vulnerable to extreme weather events, with nearly 45% showing evidence of this dramatic shift. The study reported a four-fold increase in the frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of climate extremes over recent decades, with the past 10 years seeing a five-fold surge.
Abinash Mohanty, Head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the study’s lead author, attributes these changes to a 0.6°C rise in temperature over the last century. Mohanty warns that by 2036, more than 1.47 billion Indians could be highly exposed to climate extremes, with devastating impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods.
Regional Impact of Climate Extremes
The study highlights significant regional disparities in how climate extremes are manifesting. Eastern Indian districts are now prone to extreme flood events, followed by the northeastern and southern zones. On the other hand, southern India, particularly Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, is seeing a marked increase in drought conditions.
Notably, several districts have undergone a complete reversal in weather patterns. Regions like Srikakulam, Cuttack, Guntur, and Kurnool, previously known for flooding, are now grappling with severe droughts. Major urban centers, including Bengaluru, Pune, Ahmedabad, Patna, and Prayagraj, are also witnessing these dramatic shifts in climate, leading to a surge in unpredictable weather events.
Call for Immediate Action
In response to these findings, experts have stressed the importance of hyper-granular risk assessments. The report recommends establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) and an Infrastructure Climate Fund (ICF) to support climate-resilient infrastructure and foster locally-led climate action.
Agendra Kumar, Managing Director of Esri India, emphasized the role of geographic information systems (GIS) in building climate resilience. He suggested that GIS-driven solutions could help stakeholders better understand and mitigate the sectoral impacts of climate change across regions.
As India faces these escalating climate risks, the study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, localized climate risk assessments and targeted interventions. Protecting lives, livelihoods, and the economy from the growing threats of climate change will require coordinated efforts and innovative approaches to adaptation and resilience.