A groundbreaking study has demonstrated a clear link between climatic phenomena and the rising propensity for fires in the Amazon rainforest. Researchers have identified compromised groundwater storage, exacerbated by El Niño-driven droughts, as a critical factor in escalating fire risks. The findings, backed by satellite data and fire reports, could pave the way for more effective prevention strategies.
Role of Groundwater and El Niño in Amazon Fires
The study highlights that regions with depleted groundwater storage are at greater risk of fires during extreme droughts. Researchers observed that during El Niño events, prolonged dry conditions impact three key water reservoirs: topsoil, the tree root zone, and groundwater, with groundwater being the slowest to recover. El Niño, characterized by abnormal Pacific Ocean warming, disrupts global weather patterns and intensifies droughts in the Amazon.
Between 2015 and 2016, one of the strongest El Niño events coincided with severe droughts and widespread fires in the northeast and eastern Amazon basin. These fires destroyed vast swathes of the rainforest, with 128,000 square kilometers an area the size of England burned in 2024 alone, according to Brazil’s Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ).
“Fires in the Amazon largely have anthropogenic origins. But during intense El Niño events, meteorological and hydrological droughts worsen, leaving smaller trees with shallow roots particularly vulnerable,” explains Professor Bruno Conicelli of the University of São Paulo, one of the study’s lead authors.
Worsening Trends and Global Implications
The total number of fires recorded in the Brazilian Amazon between January and November 2024 reached 132,211, the highest since 2010, according to Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research (INPE). Deforestation, agriculture, and fragmentation of natural landscapes compound these risks. Researchers warn that as El Niño events grow more frequent and intense, the Amazon’s susceptibility to fire-related devastation will escalate.
International studies have already highlighted the significant impact of prolonged droughts on wildfires in the western Amazon, where nearly 68% of fires between March 2023 and February 2024 were linked to drought conditions.
Developing a Fire Risk Alert System
In response to these findings, researchers are developing a fire risk index tailored to the Amazon region. This index integrates meteorological indicators (like rainfall) and hydrological factors (such as groundwater and soil moisture levels). The tool aims to provide early warnings and guide fire prevention strategies.
Professor Conicelli emphasized the importance of these studies in raising awareness about the Amazon’s vulnerability to extreme weather events. “As the forest faces more frequent and intense weather anomalies, understanding the interplay between hydrological and meteorological droughts can help reduce fire risks,” he said.
Looking ahead, researchers plan to incorporate real-time field data to further refine the system and improve its predictive capabilities. The initiative is part of Brazil’s SACRE project, which focuses on water resource management and aims to enhance resilience against climate-related crises.
This work underscores the urgent need for global cooperation in protecting the Amazon, a critical ecosystem under mounting pressure from climate change and human activity.