In a dramatic climate event, temperatures at the North Pole surged more than 20°C above average on Sunday, surpassing the melting threshold for ice.
According to European and U.S. weather models, regions north of Svalbard, Norway, had already experienced an 18°C temperature anomaly on Saturday, bringing actual readings dangerously close to 0°C. By Sunday, the anomaly had exceeded 20°C, marking one of the most extreme winter warming events recorded in the Arctic.
“This was a very extreme winter warming event,” said Mika Rantanen, a scientist at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. “Probably not the most extreme ever observed, but still at the upper edge of what can happen in the Arctic.”
Scientists attribute this rapid warming to a combination of human-induced climate change and regional weather patterns. Fossil fuel emissions have increased global temperatures by approximately 1.3°C since preindustrial times, with the Arctic warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet.
Julien Nicolas, from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, explained that a deep low-pressure system over Iceland was directing warm air toward the North Pole, while abnormally warm waters in the northeast Atlantic intensified the effect.
“This type of event is relatively rare, but we are not able to assess its frequency without further analysis,” said Nicolas. “We are aware that a similar event occurred in February 2018.”
Data from Arctic snow buoys confirmed the alarming trend, with one station recording temperatures as high as 0.5°C. Scientists estimate temperature anomalies in the region ranged from 20°C to 30°C—an unprecedented deviation from normal winter conditions.
The rapid warming poses an immediate threat to Arctic ice, which is already shrinking at an alarming rate. Climate expert Dirk Notz of the University of Hamburg warned that temperatures surpassing the freezing point accelerate ice loss.
“There is no negotiating with this fact, and no negotiating with the fact that the ice will disappear more and more as long as temperatures keep rising,” said Notz.
A 2023 study co-authored by Notz concluded that Arctic summer sea ice is likely to vanish entirely within the next two decades, even if drastic emissions cuts are implemented.
“We expect the Arctic Ocean to lose its sea-ice cover in summer for the first time over the next two decades,” Notz added. “This will probably be the first landscape that disappears because of human activities, indicating yet again how powerful we humans have become in shaping the face of our planet.”