A groundbreaking new model developed by researchers at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam could change how we understand and respond to the unfolding crisis of coastal agriculture under sea level rise. Dubbed DYNAMO-M, the global agent-based model simulates not just the physical impact of climate change but the personal decisions millions of farmers may be forced to make as the waters rise: stay and adapt, or leave everything behind.
13 Million Farming Households on the Frontlines of Sea-Level Rise
Presented at the EGU General Assembly 2025 in Vienna, DYNAMO-M offers one of the first comprehensive looks at how 13 million coastal farming households around the world might react to increasing threats from flooding and saltwater intrusion between 2020 and 2080.
Unlike traditional models DYNAMO-M incorporates discounted expected utility (DEU) theory to simulate the actual decision-making processes of farmers. Each year, the model evaluates three real-life options:
- Absorb losses and stay
- Adapt with new techniques like elevated homes or salt-tolerant crops
- Migrate inland to safer areas
- Where the Tide Will Turn: Hotspots of Future Migration and Risk
According to the model, flood-prone zones in Florida, New York, Oregon, Japan, China, the Philippines, and Italy will likely experience significant shifts in land use and population. The model is especially focused on areas within the 1-in-100-year floodplains, which face an intensifying risk of catastrophic flooding.
Already, rising salinity and flooding are cutting into crop yields and farming income across coastal regions. By mapping these impacts year-by-year across 23 key food crops, DYNAMO-M paints a stark picture of what’s to come if current trends continue unchecked.
It’s Not All Doom: Policies That Could Keep Farmers Rooted
But the DYNAMO-M team didn’t stop at doom and displacement. They simulated various policy interventions, including insurance programs and government subsidies, to assess whether smart investments could change the game and the answer is yes.
Their findings reveal that even small subsidies can meaningfully boost farmers’ ability to adapt, reducing the need for migration and increasing resilience.
Smart, well-timed support can prevent displacement and protect food systems, Pandey notes. This gives policymakers tools to act before the tipping point.
In a world where extreme weather is becoming more frequent and more destructive, DYNAMO-M pushes climate modeling into new territory one where human behavior and adaptive choices are just as important as environmental data.