Over 400 natural disasters occur worldwide each year, placing millions of people at risk, particularly those living in countries supported by the International Development Association (IDA). In 2023, these disasters resulted in a staggering $250 billion loss and claimed 74,000 lives globally. Severe regional storms were responsible for 76% of the economic losses. Furthermore, the looming threat of climate change is expected to trigger even more destructive weather events in coastal regions worldwide, underscoring the urgency of the situation.
Disasters can be natural (e.g., earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, floods) or human-made (e.g., war, climate change, accidents). The Oxford English Dictionary defines a disaster as “An event or occurrence of a ruinous or very distressing nature; a calamity; esp. a sudden accident or natural catastrophe that causes great damage or loss of life.” However, if prepared, natural hazards do not have to result in catastrophic events.
Investing to Minimize Damage
Mozambique’s successful resilience against Cyclone Freddy is a compelling model of the lessons learned and implemented after Cyclone Idai in 2019. On February 5, 2023, a minor weather disturbance off the coast of northwest Australia turned into the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record, Cyclone Freddy. It traveled 5,000 miles across the Indian Ocean and hit Southern Mozambique almost three weeks later.
On February 24, 2023, Avelino Binda, a fisherman from Inhambane, a southern province of Mozambique, was getting ready to go to sea as usual when he received an alert about an approaching storm.
Cyclone Idai’s devastation was still fresh in people’s minds. With the help of the International Development Association (IDA), Mozambique developed a new early warning system to track and minimize potential hazards, taking early action and saving lives. This early warning system allowed Avelino and other communities to prepare and find shelter quickly.
Moving from Response to Resilience
Cyclone Freddy later strengthened and slammed Mozambique and Malawi again on March 11, 2023, causing devastating floods as heavy rains and storm surges came ashore. Unfortunately, Cyclone Freddy caused over 1,000 deaths and displaced hundreds of thousands in Malawi. IDA redirected funding for essential aid, and a post-disaster needs assessment estimated $600 million in damages and $700 million in recovery needs. Looking ahead to the long term, IDA is preparing a comprehensive crisis response and resilience program to help Malawi scale up critical work on degraded landscapes.
IDA’s Approach to Crisis Preparedness
In today’s uncertain world, where people, especially in many IDA countries, are at risk from extreme weather events, pandemics, conflicts, and violence, being prepared for crises is crucial.
IDA considers crisis preparedness a policy priority, aiming to enhance countries’ understanding of essential crisis risks and strengthen their capacity to manage a range of shocks. IDA offers an extensive toolkit to help countries manage their crisis risks. It covers various types of crises at various stages of risk onset, from resilience-building to post-crisis interventions.
Crisis-Specific Tools and Financial Support
One important tool that IDA utilizes is the Crisis Response Window (CRW). It provides extra financing to IDA countries to address the impacts of severe natural disasters, public health emergencies, and economic crises as a last resort. IDA also uses early response financing (ERF) to assist with minor events that have the potential to develop into major crises but are still in the early stages. This financing provides immediate support and promotes resilience, which is a vital aspect of long-term disaster management.
Crisis Preparedness Gap Analysis (CPGA)
While many IDA countries proactively take steps to improve their preparedness to manage complex crises, further progress is needed. The World Bank uses the Crisis Preparedness Gap Analysis (CPGA) as part of the new crisis toolkit. This high-level diagnostic tool evaluates the gaps and weaknesses in-country response systems to find ways to improve crisis preparedness as part of a comprehensive dialogue on crisis risk management and resilience. It was developed to support the implementation of policy commitments related to crisis preparedness in IDA20.
Success Stories and Best Practices
Bangladesh: A Model for Disaster Management
Bangladesh is recognized for effectively managing natural disasters. Since 1970, it has reduced cyclone-related deaths by 100-fold. It has a strong network of community-based early warning systems and sophisticated hydrometeorological technologies for weather forecasting. With support from IDA, the country has built cyclone shelters, strengthened polder systems, improved early warning systems, and upgraded embankments.
Mozambique: Early Warning Systems in Action
The National Meteorology Institute (INAM) issues weather warnings based on satellite imagery, radar, and observation network data. The Institute of Social Communication (ICS) then disseminates these alerts through its network of 70 community radios and trained community members. The purpose is to warn at-risk communities and guide them to safety before extreme weather events occur. IDA has been actively promoting the creation and strengthening of local disaster risk management committees in all at-risk communities nationwide.
Nepal: Building Back Resiliently
On April 25, 2015, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck central Nepal. Less than one month later, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake followed, causing over 8,700 deaths and around 25,000 injuries. In a groundbreaking experiment, IDA assisted in rebuilding 330,000 houses using an owner-driven approach. Homeowners made decisions about reconstruction but had to ensure that the houses complied with technical specifications. IDA improved resilient construction practices by training engineers and masons on earthquake-resistant building skills in Nepal, as it did after the earthquakes in Pakistan and Haiti in 2005 and 2010, respectively.
Preparing for the Future
Recent advances in AI-based weather models can cost-effectively predict long-term climate projections and extreme weather events. However, merely enhancing predictions is insufficient; the information must be effectively communicated to enable people to take necessary action.
Protecting Natural Resources
About one-third of the world’s population relies on forests and forest products, and over 90% of people living in extreme poverty depend on forests for their livelihoods. By 2030, an estimated 46 million hectares of natural land could be converted into cropland and forest plantations. This conversion could potentially result in a loss of $90 billion in global GDP, and with the loss of carbon sequestration services, the potential loss could be as high as $225 billion. This would have significant implications for countries, particularly in many IDA-supported countries, that rely heavily on the natural ecosystem for essential goods and services such as food and raw materials, pollination, and water filtration.
Enhancing Crisis Preparedness
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of preventing, preparing for, and responding to pandemics, especially in low-income countries. Over the years, IDA has supported pandemic prevention and response during outbreaks such as Avian Flu, SARS, Swine Flu, Zika, and Ebola. Following the Ebola outbreak in West and Central Africa, IDA specifically focused on strengthening disease outbreak preparedness in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade.
The Role of IDA in a Changing World
IDA is well-positioned to support countries in crisis preparedness, drawing from its experience in natural disaster support. Its holistic crisis management strategy sets it apart from other institutions.
Key Strengths of IDA
- Continued Engagement: IDA stays engaged, maintaining a longer-term development need to integrate crisis risk management and resilience into the development agenda.
- Tailored Solutions: IDA’s country-driven model facilitates tailored solutions and the global transfer of knowledge.
- Flexible Funding: IDA’s unearmarked funds help countries prioritize crisis preparedness that fits their country’s risk profiles and respond flexibly and at scale when crises occur.
- Global Reach: IDA’s global reach allows extensive support such as advisory services, risk assessments, financing, and project design across multiple sectors.
- Local Knowledge: IDA’s strong presence on the ground enables it to complement global expertise with local knowledge on crisis preparedness, especially in Small States where best-fit solutions are critical.
- Incentivizing Preparedness: IDA’s pre-arranged financing instruments incentivize crisis preparedness. Unlike humanitarian actors, IDA’s mandate requires continued engagement in countries long after an emergency subsides.
In a world increasingly prone to natural and human-made disasters, building resilience and preparedness is paramount. The International Development Association (IDA) plays a crucial role in helping vulnerable countries enhance their crisis preparedness and resilience. Through innovative tools, comprehensive assessments, and targeted support, IDA ensures that countries are better equipped to face future crises, safeguarding lives and livelihoods.