In September 1933, American meteorologist Joseph Kincer posed a now-crucial question: Is the climate changing? This query marked the beginning of modern efforts to understand humanity’s impact on the planet’s climate.
By examining global temperature trends, Kincer concluded the world was warming, though he did not propose a cause. Five years later, in 1938, British engineer Guy Callendar attributed a 0.3°C rise in land temperatures over 50 years to increased carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal. This built upon earlier theories of the greenhouse effect, laying the groundwork for understanding human-driven climate change.
Accelerating Warming
Today, global climate monitoring relies on a sophisticated network of weather stations, satellites, and forecast models that track changes daily and over decades. These systems confirm an unsettling trend: the planet is heating at an unprecedented rate.
The warming that once took a century 0.3°C has now occurred more than three times faster in just the last 60 years, reaching approximately 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The years 2023 and 2024 are the hottest on record, signaling a critical juncture for climate action.
What Drives Global Warming?
The primary driver of global warming is greenhouse gas emissions. Higher emissions mean a faster warming rate. Even with reductions, temperatures will continue to rise albeit more slowly until humanity achieves net-zero emissions. Only then can global temperatures stabilize.
Historical trends also show variability. Cooling occurred mid-century due to reflective aerosol particles from industrial pollution. This effect diminished with clean air policies introduced in the 1960s. Meanwhile, natural climate variations dominated the pre-World War II era, masking early industrial impacts.
Unequal Impacts
The effects of warming are not distributed evenly. Land areas warm faster than oceans, and the Arctic is heating up to four times faster than the global average. This disparity exacerbates regional climate challenges, such as extreme weather events and rising sea levels.
What’s Next?
Persistent warmth in 2023 and 2024 surprised many climate scientists. However, 2025 could see slightly cooler conditions due to La Niña a cooling phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the Pacific Ocean.
Long-term projections are less optimistic. Exceeding 1.5°C of warming as a long-term average is expected within the next decade. Whether global warming is limited to 1.6°C or continues to rise hinges on decisions made in the immediate future.
As the COP29 climate summit unfolds in Azerbaijan, these warnings underscore the urgency of international collaboration. The world’s ability to limit warming will determine the severity of its consequences—affecting ecosystems, economies, and millions of lives.