Researchers have introduced key improvements in numerical weather models significantly enhancing the ability to predict typhoon tracks and intensities. The study led by Dr. Xiaowei Tan from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, focuses on refining typhoon forecasts by improving parameterization schemes used in operational models.
Published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, the research presents modifications to the CMA-TYM operational model, incorporating a new parameterization scheme for friction velocity at the ocean surface and a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme. These updates replace the original methods, leading to better predictions for Typhoon Kompasu (2118).
Statistical analysis shows that the improved model enhances both track and intensity forecasts. Researchers found that the modifications influence the timing and magnitude of extreme intensity levels by altering the evolution of the tropical cyclone’s warm-core structure. This breakthrough addresses a longstanding challenge in typhoon intensity forecasting, which has seen slower progress compared to track predictions.
Additionally, the study introduces a novel approach for evaluating tropical cyclone forecasting accuracy by integrating peak intensity timing errors into model verification. This comprehensive evaluation method provides deeper insights into model performance, paving the way for further refinements in numerical weather prediction.
As typhoons continue to pose significant threats to human life and property, advancements in forecasting models are essential for improving disaster preparedness and response strategies.