A recent study by Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF) expert Stephanie Mayer reveals that less snowfall doesn’t necessarily equate to fewer avalanches. Instead, climate change is shifting the nature of avalanche risks in Switzerland, particularly at elevations above 1,800 meters.
Mayer’s research indicates that as temperatures rise, dry avalanches are likely to decrease, but they’ll be partially replaced by wet snow avalanches, especially at higher altitudes. These wet avalanches occur when part of the snowpack is moistened by rain or meltwater, making them challenging to control through traditional safety methods, such as artificial triggering. “Closing off endangered areas may be the only solution,” Mayer explains, highlighting the challenges this change poses for ski resorts and avalanche warning services.
Mayer’s calculations, based on various climate scenarios, show that under the worst-case scenario where average winter temperatures rise by five degrees Celsius by 2100 overall avalanche activity could decrease by 20 to 40 percent above the current tree line. However, this wouldn’t apply during extreme snowfall events, which could still lead to larger, valley-reaching avalanches, especially in higher-altitude regions.
Using data from seven Swiss locations, including Weissfluhjoch near Davos and Zermatt, Mayer’s findings are likely applicable across the entire Alpine region and mountain ranges with similar conditions, such as Canada’s Columbia Mountains. The study suggests that authorities might need to update avalanche hazard maps to reflect the evolving risks due to climate change.
Reference: https://www.preventionweb.net/news/more-wet-less-dry-avalanches-future