Climate change is set to have profound effects on wind power, a crucial component of the global energy mix. With around 1 terawatt of installed wind power capacity worldwide, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of the Netherlands, this figure is expected to double by 2030. Despite this growth, it still falls short of net-zero targets. Wind power already plays a significant role in many regions, with the UK deriving 29% of its electricity from wind in 2023 and the EU 18%.
However, the future of wind power is uncertain as climate change alters wind patterns, intensifies storms, increases lightning strikes, and subjects equipment to extreme heat, potentially shortening the lifespan of turbines and increasing downtime.
In the second half of 2021, Northwestern Europe experienced a “wind drought,” with wind speeds 15% below average. This phenomenon, attributed to Arctic warming and reduced temperature differentials between the tropics and the poles, led to a significant drop in wind speeds. Such occurrences are becoming more common, with similar conditions observed in the winter of 2022. High-pressure patterns over the northeastern Atlantic and Greenland have been linked to these wind droughts.
The impact of wind droughts is severe. In September 2021, wind’s contribution to the UK electricity mix plummeted to 2%, necessitating the reactivation of coal plants. In December 2022, the UK saw record-high wholesale electricity prices due to reduced wind power and rising natural gas costs.
The relationship between wind speed and electricity production is non-linear; a 10% decline in wind speed can result in a more than 30% reduction in output. Wind turbines require a minimum wind threshold to operate, and their productivity depends on various factors, including wind magnitude, direction, pattern, and duration.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change could reduce average annual wind speeds by 10% by 2100, with significant regional variability. Studies suggest that 11% of global wind power plants may see a 5% decrease in average wind speeds under a low emissions scenario, increasing to 18% under a high emissions scenario.
Storms and Wind Turbines
Most wind turbines are designed to withstand winds up to 112 mph, equivalent to a category 3 hurricane. However, speeds beyond this can damage rotors and topple turbines. Extreme winds also lead to turbine shutdowns to prevent damage.
Tropical cyclones and severe storms affect power generation by causing shutdowns at high speeds and potential infrastructure damage. While wind farms have generally coped well with storms such as those in Texas during Hurricane Harvey in 2017 strong winds have caused damage, like Typhoons Jebi and Cimarron in Japan in 2018, and windstorms in Scotland in 2023.
Observations suggest a decrease or no change in tropical cyclone frequency globally, but the intensity of major cyclones (Category 3-5) is increasing, a trend expected to continue. This intensification, coupled with rising sea levels, inland flooding, and changes in wave patterns, will compound the damage from storms.
Lightning Strikes and Rising Temperatures
Lightning strikes affect an estimated 5.4% of turbine blades annually, causing 60% of operational blade losses and 20% of operational wind losses. With climate change, lightning frequency is projected to increase by 12% per 1°C of warming, potentially leading to a 50% increase in the US by 2100. Larger turbine towers, expected to reach heights of 230-250 meters by 2030, will be more susceptible to lightning strikes.
Extreme heat events, which have become more frequent, can affect battery cells and other equipment. Turbines are designed to shut down at temperatures above 45°C to prevent damage, resulting in lower outputs from wind farms.
Implications for Insurers and Investors
Investors and stakeholders must consider projected changes in wind speeds when planning expected electricity output. Risk prevention measures should include turbines with greater resilience to wind gusts, lightning strikes, and extreme heat. Offshore turbines, while larger and located in higher windspeed areas, are costlier to replace and have longer downtimes than onshore turbines.
As climate change exacerbates risks, wind power investments will inevitably become more challenging. For instance, Texas has significant wind power potential but faces high storm exposure and increasing extreme heat days.
In conclusion, while wind power remains a vital component of the global energy mix, climate change poses significant risks that must be addressed through strategic planning, investment in resilient technology, and comprehensive risk management.
Edited By Megha Chaubey (Climate Change Expert)