India is set for an early and seemingly strong onset of the Southwest Monsoon, but weather models and past trends are raising red flags about a possible stall. The emergence of twin cyclonic systems one in the Arabian Sea and another in the Bay of Bengal could disrupt the seasonal rains just as they begin.
Monsoon Arriving Early Kerala to See Rains Before June 1
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the monsoon has already advanced over parts of the southern Arabian Sea, the Maldives, the Bay of Bengal, and Northeast India. According to their May 21 bulletin, conditions are rapidly becoming favorable for the monsoon to reach Kerala between May 24 and May 27 about a week ahead of the June 1 average.
Twin Cyclonic Systems Could Disrupt Monsoon Progress
Despite the encouraging start, weather models show an unsettling trend. A cyclonic circulation is forming off the Karnataka-Goa coast, with the potential to become a low-pressure area and intensify into a depression within 36 hours. US-based GFS model visualizations show the system hovering near Mumbai, possibly dumping heavy rain across the Konkan coast and Gujarat. Meanwhile, the ECMWF model predicts it may cross into land near Pune by May 23.
Simultaneously, another low-pressure area is likely to develop in the Bay of Bengal around May 26, near the Andaman Sea, and may intensify as it tracks toward Odisha. A second low-pressure system may also emerge in the Arabian Sea by May 29, setting the stage for an unpredictable weather pattern.
Rainfall Surges Raise Alarm Across Western Coast
Heavy, unseasonal rain has already arrived in Goa and coastal Maharashtra, mimicking monsoon conditions. Goa saw 94.5 mm of rain on May 21, which was 2,601% above the normal. South Goa received 108 mm a shocking 3,078% surplus. Sindhudurg district in Maharashtra recorded 56 mm of rain, over 4,200% more than its typical amount for the day.
The IMD has issued alerts for very heavy rainfall in the Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Gujarat regions from May 22 to May 27. These totals suggest the monsoon may be acting ahead of schedule, but whether it can sustain momentum inland remains uncertain.
While both the GFS and ECMWF models predict the formation of low-pressure systems, they disagree on their intensity and track. GFS suggests stronger systems moving deep inland, while ECMWF forecasts weaker cyclonic events lingering near the coasts. This disagreement complicates predictions and has meteorologists urging close monitoring in the coming days.
History Repeats: Early Onset, Sudden Stall?
Climate scientists warn that early monsoon onset doesn’t guarantee timely progress. In 2024, Cyclone Remal in the Bay of Bengal stalled the monsoon for 19 days after an early and simultaneous onset over Kerala and the Northeast. Similarly, in 2021, Cyclones Tauktae and Yaas halted monsoon movement for 24 days.
Dr. Raghu Murtugudde, climate expert at IIT Bombay, noted: “Cyclones can help pull the monsoon trough forward, but if they form too close to the coast or land, they can stall it. We have southwesterly winds in place, but we’ll have to see how these systems behave.”
Early Rains Offer Hope But Risks Remain
The IMD had predicted a stronger-than-usual monsoon this year. While this brings hope for a good agricultural season and respite from heatwaves, the interplay between heat, ocean currents, and cyclonic activity could still derail progress.
Experts are urging caution. Even a week’s delay in monsoon progression can have ripple effects from delayed sowing to water shortages and prolonged heat in interior regions.
As India welcomes early rains, it must stay alert for what comes next. In a warming climate, no monsoon is predictable and this year’s promising start could still be interrupted by the storms brewing just offshore.