The frequency of days with extreme heat, dryness, and high fire risk has tripled in certain parts of South America since 1970, according to recent research. The study highlights that while the continent is warming at the same rate as the global average, specific regions are increasingly vulnerable to the co-occurrence of these climate extremes, which pose significant threats to ecosystems, economies, and public health.
The most affected areas include the Venezuela-Colombia border, the northern Amazon, and parts of central South America near the Río de la Plata basin. In these regions, the number of days with compounded climate extremes has skyrocketed from fewer than 20 to as many as 70 per year. The variability of these extreme events has also increased from year to year.
Impact of El Niño and La Niña on Fire Risk
The study further found that the likelihood of these extreme conditions is closely tied to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During the warm El Niño phase, fire risk escalates in the northern Amazon, while the cooler La Niña phase triggers increased fire risk in central South America. These fluctuations underscore the complex dynamics of climate change in the region and its far-reaching consequences.
As South America continues to experience compounded climate extremes, addressing these challenges will be critical for safeguarding both natural and human systems across the continent.