Extreme weather events, including storms, floods, fires, droughts, cold snaps, and heat waves, are hitting us harder and more frequently than ever. By the end of the century, more than half of our planet is predicted to shift into new climate zones. A new interactive map, The Future Urban Climates, allows you to explore how your home’s climate will be impacted.
Using data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), University of Maryland spatial ecologist Matthew Fitzpatrick has matched 40,581 places around the globe to nearby locations currently experiencing their future predicted climate in 2080. For instance, a trip to northern Mississippi today would give you an idea of the climate New York City is expected to experience by 2080. However, under a low emissions scenario, the projected future climate is located far closer to home.
“In 50 years, the northern hemisphere cities to the north are going to become much more like cities to the south,” explains Fitzpatrick. “Everything is moving towards the equator in terms of the climate that’s coming for you.”
In 2015, estimates showed that almost 6 percent of Earth’s land area had already shifted towards warmer and dryer climates by 2010, compared to 1950. The most extensive changes so far have occurred in North America, Europe, and Oceania. The new map reveals what our world will look like as these trends continue through to 2080 and under a lower emissions scenario if we manage to change things around.
With an expected 6°C (11°F) of warming, Washington, DC, is on track to feel like current-day North Louisiana. The closer you get to the equator, the fewer good matches exist for future climates in places like Central America, South Florida, and Northern Africa. “There is no place on Earth representative of what those places will be like in the future,” warns Fitzpatrick.
About 40 percent of the global population lives in these equatorial regions, which means more than 3.3 billion people are heading towards a climate more extreme than anywhere we live today. Some researchers fear parts of the tropics may become uninhabitable, as there’s only so much heat and humidity our bodies can tolerate.
People are already dying. With temperatures reaching beyond predicted extremes last year and no significant reductions in fossil fuel emissions, it’s increasingly likely we’ll face the more extreme scenarios outlined in the map.
“I hope that it continues to inform the conversation about climate change,” says Fitzpatrick. “I hope it helps people better understand the magnitude of the impacts and why scientists are so concerned.”
Reference: This New Map Reveals The Predicted Future Climate Where You Live