A new study warns that global flooding hazards are set to increase by 49% between 2020 and 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. The research, published in Water Resources Research, highlights the regions most at risk, including the coasts of the North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, southeastern Asia, and the Pacific Islands.
The study utilized advanced modeling techniques to create a Global Flood Map (GFM), which considers floods induced by rainfall, river discharge, and rising sea levels. The research team, led by Professor Paul Bates from the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment, noted that previously used flood maps lacked accuracy in simulating real floods. By applying new techniques, the team gained more precise insights into future flood risks.
The analysis shows that by 2050, flood risk could increase by 7% in a low-emissions scenario and by 15% in a high-emissions scenario. By 2100, coastal flood hazards are expected to nearly double, with a projected 99% increase even under low emissions. This rise is attributed to the continued warming of ocean temperatures, which causes water to expand and sea levels to rise.
Regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, southern and southeastern Asia, and South America are expected to experience significant increases in river-triggered flooding. Rainfall-induced flooding hazards are also likely to intensify, with increases of up to 44% in a high-emissions scenario by the end of the century.
The study emphasizes the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies and protective measures to mitigate the growing risks of flooding worldwide.