Arctic warming at over three times the global rate; chances of surpassing Paris Agreement threshold reach 86%
Global temperatures are expected to hover near record highs over the next five years, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, released May 28, 2025. The findings raise serious alarms about the planet approaching irreversible climate thresholds, particularly with the Arctic heating up at more than three times the global average.
Near-term warming trends
Between 2025 and 2029, the global average near-surface temperature is projected to range between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline). Critically, the WMO report notes an 86% probability that at least one year in this period will breach the 1.5°C warming threshold set under the Paris Agreement.
The likelihood that the five-year average itself will exceed the 1.5°C mark stands at 70%. While this would not represent a permanent crossing of the threshold, it signals how close the world is to breaching a vital planetary limit, even if temporarily.
Hottest year on record
The year 2024 was officially the hottest on record, with global temperatures reaching 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average. Intense and prolonged heat waves were reported across the tropics, North America, Europe, North Africa, and parts of Asia. This record-breaking year capped a five-year period (2020–2024) of unprecedented warming, partly driven by a rare triple-dip La Niña event that lasted for three consecutive years.
Arctic heating outpaces global average
The Arctic continues to warm faster than any other region on the planet. According to the WMO update, average winter temperatures in the Arctic are projected to rise by 2.4°C over the next five years more than three and a half times the global average. Sea ice concentrations in the Barents, Bering and Okhotsk seas are also expected to decline further, contributing to accelerating feedback loops that worsen global warming.
Record-breaking heat likely to continue
The WMO report warns that there is now an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024’s record-high temperatures. While the likelihood remains low, there is even a 1% chance that a single year could exceed 2°C of warming. Such an occurrence, even if brief, could have catastrophic consequences for ecosystems, food systems, infrastructure, and human health.
Changing rainfall patterns
Global precipitation patterns are also expected to shift noticeably between 2025 and 2029. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia during the May to September months. In contrast, the Amazon basin may experience a drier-than-usual period, increasing the risk of forest fires and ecological stress.
For South Asia, the WMO projects a continuation of the recent trend of anomalously wet years with the exception of 2023. However, not all seasons in the 2025–2029 window are expected to follow this pattern, indicating continued unpredictability in monsoon dynamics.
Atmospheric anomalies in polar regions
Antarctica’s atmospheric pressure remains unusually low, a pattern that persisted through the 2020–2024 period. The Aleutian Low a key climate driver over the North Pacific remained weak during these years, in line with the extended La Niña event. These anomalies could continue to influence global wind and precipitation patterns, exacerbating regional climate extremes.
Urgent need for climate action
The WMO’s findings underscore the urgent need for robust climate action and adaptation strategies. While temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C threshold does not mean the target is permanently out of reach, it sends a strong signal that the world is veering dangerously close to irreversible damage.
The agency emphasized the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving climate resilience, and enhancing early warning systems to deal with escalating climate risks. Without drastic reductions in emissions and stronger global cooperation, even more extreme warming events are likely in the near future.