In January 2025, the city of Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) fell under the control of the M23 rebel group. This marked a deadly escalation in a decades-long conflict that has led to mass displacement and numerous deaths.
Goma, home to two million people, faces a compounded risk. Just 12 miles from the city lies Mount Nyiragongo, one of the world’s most dangerous active volcanoes. The volcano’s lava flows can reach speeds of over 60 miles per hour faster than a person can run. During its 2021 eruption, thousands were displaced and at least 250 people lost their lives. An earlier eruption in 2002 left 13% of Goma buried in lava.
The DRC exemplifies the dangers faced by fragile, conflict-affected regions when natural disasters strike. Climate change further intensifies vulnerabilities, creating a dangerous interplay between conflict and environmental hazards.
If Mount Nyiragongo were to erupt soon, as some research suggests could happen by 2027, an ongoing conflict would make it difficult for residents to heed evacuation warnings. Civilians may not trust alerts or feel safe enough to flee along dangerous roads.
To address these challenges, a new UN handbook has been published by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and the World Meteorological Organization. It offers strategies for improving early warning systems in fragile and conflict-affected areas.
Lessons from Disaster Risk Experts
The handbook highlights that early warning systems—designed to monitor hazards, predict disasters, and prompt early action—should be considered essential services, even in conflict zones. However, many of the countries that need these systems most are drastically underfunded.
For these systems to work effectively, trust within affected communities is crucial. Co-developing warning messages with local communities and leaders can help ensure that warnings are understood and acted upon.
In conflict zones, government mistrust often complicates the situation. Involving community leaders and even conflict actors in the development of early warning systems can reduce misinformation and ensure that local dynamics are accounted for.
Funding & Access Gaps
Many of the most vulnerable countries lack adequate multi-hazard early warning systems. Nineteen of the top 25 most climate-vulnerable states are affected by fragility, conflict, and violence. These countries often have limited resources for both disaster preparedness and response.
In Goma, the Virunga Supersite monitors Mount Nyiragongo and other hazards. This collaborative effort between local and global researchers has strengthened volcanic monitoring. However, frequent conflict disrupts access and endangers staff through threats of violence, intimidation, and kidnapping.
The World Meteorological Organization is working with the DRC government to improve early warning systems. But ongoing humanitarian funding challenges may make disaster preparedness even more urgent.
Looking Forward
Predicting and mitigating the impacts of disasters is vital, especially in fragile regions like eastern DRC. Without adequate early warning and action, an existing humanitarian crisis could turn into an even greater catastrophe if Mount Nyiragongo were to erupt again.
By strengthening early warning systems and ensuring early action, lives can be saved, suffering reduced, and disaster response costs minimized. For regions like Goma, this preparation could be the difference between life and death.