A new regional climate outlook warns of an above-normal rainy season across much of the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2025, raising hopes for improved agricultural output while spotlighting risks of flooding and disease outbreaks.
Issued during the 70th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), the forecast anticipates wetter-than-average conditions across key parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, and Djibouti. The forecast was released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), in collaboration with WMO and national meteorological agencies.
Key Rainfall Highlights
The seasonal forecast projects a 55% chance of above-normal rainfall in:
- Central Sudan
- Eastern South Sudan
- Northern and southwestern Ethiopia
- Western Kenya
- Eastern Uganda
A slightly lower, but still significant 45% chance of wetter-than-usual conditions is forecast for:
- Western Uganda
- South and Southern Sudan
- Djibouti
- Western Eritrea
However parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya as well as southeastern Ethiopia and northwestern South Sudan, are likely to see below-average rainfall, prompting early warnings for water stress and potential crop failure.
Rising Heat: Compounding Climate Pressure
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual in southern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya, and northern Sudan. This could intensify risks of heat stress and amplify the spread of climate-sensitive diseases such as cholera and malaria, especially in areas with limited healthcare and sanitation infrastructure.
Conversely slightly cooler or near-normal temperatures are forecast across the IGAD-Karamoja cluster (spanning Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan, and Ethiopia), Djibouti, Eritrea, and central Sudan.
Balancing Opportunities and Risks
While higher rainfall promises a chance to replenish groundwater, boost crop yields, and enhance hydropower potential, it also raises red flags for flash floods, waterborne disease outbreaks, and infrastructure strain in low-lying urban areas.
Climate experts urge:
- Enhanced flood preparedness measures
- Adjustments to planting schedules in agriculture
- Targeted health interventions and sanitation programs
- Proactive food and water security strategies in drier zones
A Call for Coordinated Climate Action
The GHACOF forum emphasized the urgency of using climate intelligence to shape policy. Governments, humanitarian organizations, and community leaders are encouraged to:
- Strengthen early warning and response systems
- Mobilize public awareness campaigns
- Integrate climate forecasts into national development planning
As rainfall patterns shift, the 2025 monsoon season represents both a challenge and a critical opportunity for climate-resilient growth in a region already vulnerable to climate extremes. The coming months will test the region’s preparedness, coordination, and capacity to turn forecasts into forward-looking, life-saving action.