The entire Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is expected to witness a summer monsoon that is both hotter and wetter than average, warned the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in a new climate outlook released on June 11, 2025.
According to the analysis of global and regional meteorological data, temperatures across the HKH zone could be up to 2°C higher than usual, while rainfall is also projected to exceed normal levels in large parts of the region.
“The forecasts we’ve studied are unanimous in predicting a hotter monsoon across the entire HKH, with a trend towards higher-than-normal rainfall in major parts of the region,” said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, senior advisor at ICIMOD and one of the report’s reviewers.
Almost the Entire Region to Be Affected
The warming trend is expected to impact nearly all HKH countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China’s Tibet Autonomous Region, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan, the report noted.
But what raises deeper concern is the likelihood of above-normal monsoon rains a factor that could trigger widespread floods, landslides, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and other water-induced disasters across these fragile mountain landscapes.
For India and Nepal, there is a strong probability of above-average rainfall during the southwest monsoon. Pakistan’s northern Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and parts of Balochistan are also likely to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall.
However, not all regions will see more rain. The report forecasts below-average precipitation in Afghanistan, especially in its western parts, raising the risk of severe drought. Parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and western Gilgit-Baltistan (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) may also receive less rainfall than usual.
More Rain, More Risk: Floods, Landslides, Glacial Bursts Loom Large
The summer monsoon is the primary source of rainfall for the HKH region and crucial to the water supply of major rivers like the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra. But with more intense rainfall comes greater hazard risk especially in mountainous terrain vulnerable to flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and GLOFs.
The ICIMOD report noted that nearly 72.5% of all floods between 1980 and 2024 occurred during the monsoon, underlining the connection between monsoon rains and flood risk.
“Rising temperatures and more extreme rain raise the risk of water-induced disasters such as floods, landslides, and debris flows, and have longer-term impacts on glaciers, snow reserves, and permafrost,” the report said. Conversely, below-average rainfall in drought-prone regions like Afghanistan could deepen water and food insecurity, threatening already vulnerable populations suffering from malnutrition.
Warning for Governments: Prepare Now, Or Pay Later
ICIMOD’s Disaster Risk Reduction expert Saswata Sanyal stressed the urgent need for impact-based early warning systems to be rolled out at scale. “Given the extremely high exposure and risks in our region, governments and donors must urgently step up efforts to build disaster preparedness,” Sanyal said in a statement.
Experts also warn that the dangerous mix of higher temperatures and wetter monsoons could lead to increased cases of heat stress and outbreaks of waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever already a growing problem across South Asia.
South Asia’s Wetter Trend to Continue Beyond 2025
The findings echo those of a recent World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report, which confirmed that South Asia has been experiencing wetter-than-average monsoons for several years, except 2023. This trend is expected to continue at least until 2029, the WMO said.
ICIMOD’s comprehensive report combines projections from several respected climate monitoring bodies, including the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SACOF), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre (APCC), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as well as various national weather agencies.
As climate risks rise in the HKH a region home to more than 240 million people and the source of Asia’s major rivers the call for urgent climate adaptation, disaster planning, and regional cooperation has never been clearer.