In a significant step toward combating the rising health threats of extreme heat, Indian scientists at IIT Roorkee have developed a personalised early warning system (EWS) that forecasts individual heat stress risks every five days, blending weather data with personal health, lifestyle, and environmental factors.
Unlike existing heatwave alerts that issue blanket warnings, this prototype assigns customised risk scores green (low), yellow (medium), and red (high) based on inputs like age, BMI, income, pre-existing health conditions, occupation, sleep habits, access to cooling, and transport options. Developed by researcher Kshitij Kacker and guided by faculty Mahua Mukherjee and Piyush Srivastava, the model currently operates in Delhi but is designed to be scaled nationally through a website or mobile app.
The EWS uses the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) to assess “felt temperature” based on temperature, humidity, wind, and sun exposure, combined with five-day forecasts from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).
The scoring scale ranges from 0 (low) to 1 (high risk), and aims to help individuals plan their daily activities and routines accordingly. The team collaborated with medical experts to ensure each variable is medically meaningful. Experts say this tool could be a life-saving innovation as heatwaves worsen. Public health scholar Nandita Bhan praised the tool, emphasizing the need for clear, actionable guidance to accompany the risk scores. Her recent study reported over 19,000 heat-related deaths in India between 2000 and 2021.
The IIT team hopes the system will be integrated into national weather services soon, helping India build climate resilience in the face of increasingly deadly heatwaves.