India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season raising hopes for strong agricultural output and economic growth. According to the Long Range Forecast (LRF) issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on April 15, 2025 the country could see 105% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall between June and September.
This optimistic forecast comes amid global and regional climatic conditions that seem to favor a good monsoon. Reduced snow cover over Eurasia and the northern hemisphere, along with neutral conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, are key factors supporting this outlook.
The IMD’s forecast places the probability of above-normal rainfall (105–110% of LPA) at 33% while the chance of excess rainfall (more than 110% of LPA) stands at 26%. Together, there’s a 59% likelihood of the 2025 monsoon being either above normal or excessive. The LPA for the season, based on 1971–2020 data, is 87 cm.
However not all regions may benefit equally. The IMD has highlighted that long-term drying trends may continue in the Northeastern states especially Meghalaya. Officials attribute this reversal in rainfall patterns from historically rain-soaked Northeast to a greening Thar desert to global warming and climate change.
M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences during the IMD’s press conference “Rainfall in India used to follow a dipole pattern very high in the Northeast and low in Rajasthan’s Thar desert. But over the last decade, this pattern has been shifting”.
According to initial projections, regions likely to receive much higher-than-average rainfall include southern Chhattisgarh, northern Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, southern Odisha, and parts of Maharashtra. Meanwhile, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, and some parts of Bihar may experience below-average precipitation.
Currently, the Pacific Ocean is under neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions, though atmospheric patterns are more aligned with La Niña. These patterns typically favor stronger monsoons due to cooler sea surface temperatures and increased formation of low-pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal.
Similarly, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions persist neither boosting nor hindering monsoon strength. A negative IOD usually suppresses rainfall, but for now, no such development is anticipated.
One of the most important drivers of a strong monsoon this year is the low snow cover in Eurasia and surrounding northern hemisphere regions. Less snow means more sunlight absorption, leading to warmer temperatures and enhanced monsoon circulation over India.
While this early forecast raises expectations, the IMD will release a more detailed, region-wise monsoon update on May 15, which will provide clearer insights into the spatial distribution of rainfall.
As India gears up for the monsoon, farmers, policymakers, and industry leaders are watching closely, hoping that nature’s bounty this year will help stabilize food prices, reduce inflation, and sustain the country’s economic momentum.