Suspending the Indus Water Treaty opens doors for irrigation, hydropower, and storage expansion but with steep costs, long timelines, and political hurdles.
India’s decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty could mark a turning point in tackling the chronic water scarcity of northern states but experts warn that large-scale benefits will take years of infrastructure upgrades, hefty spending, and tricky environmental trade-offs.
The Treaty signed in 1960, granted unrestricted use of eastern rivers (Satluj, Beas, Ravi) to India and restricted use of western rivers (Chenab, Jhelum, Indus) to Pakistan. India was allowed only non-consumptive or agricultural use on western rivers, with no storage or diversion permitted. That could now change.
With the Treaty suspended, India can immediately expand irrigation and drinking water access, and withhold data on river flow making it harder for Pakistan to forecast floods or droughts. This has long been a Pakistani concern: that India might, in a conflict, manipulate river flow to flood or starve Pakistan of water.
But experts caution that any significant reduction in water flow to Pakistan will take years of effort. So far, India’s hydropower projects on the western rivers have followed the Treaty rules. Future plans may break that pattern.
Costly Diversion Risky Terrain
India now plans to desilt rivers, create new storage, and divert flows across all six Indus basin rivers. This includes raising dam heights, building new reservoirs, and expanding hydropower, especially on key projects like Uri, Dulhasti, Salal, Baglihar, Kishanganga, and Tulbul.
However this will come at a price: huge costs, years of construction and risks of floods and landslides, especially in mountainous Jammu & Kashmir, through which the western rivers flow. While J&K has welcomed the Treaty’s suspension, the environmental risks are real.
India also lacks the current capacity to store even the 3.6 million acre-feet (MAF) of water it was permitted under the original Treaty.
Even on the eastern rivers India loses out: around 2 MAF from Ravi still flows into Pakistan due to unutilized capacity. There scope for ramping up usage on eastern river projects like Bhakra, Nathpa Jhakri, Pong, Shahpur Kandi, and Ranjit Sagar, but again, that requires infrastructure upgrades.
Hydropower goldmine still untapped
India has tapped only one-fifth of the hydropower potential in the Indus basin just 3,482 MW developed out of a 20,000 MW potential. To fix that, India needs decades of sustained effort and inter-state cooperation no small task when northern states like Punjab, Haryana, Himachal, and J&K are ruled by different political parties.
A clear example of the political deadlock is the Satluj-Yamuna Link (SYL) canal, which remains incomplete despite Supreme Court orders, due to Punjab’s opposition.
If India can overcome these hurdles, increased river water could revive irrigation, drinking water supply, and falling groundwater tables across the north.
Geopolitical blowback?
But going solo has risks. While India may now control upstream flows, Pakistan could retaliate in downstream areas like Gujarat’s Kutch region, where the Indus re-enters Indian territory.
More critically China controls the origin points of both the Indus and the Brahmaputra rivers. There have long been fears that China could weaponise water, altering flows into India raising the stakes in India’s own use of upstream leverage.
In the end while the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty opens strategic and developmental opportunities for India, it also calls for a measured, cooperative, and environmentally sound approach to water security.