Climate change has driven temperatures in the Kyrgyz Republic to rise at twice the global average worsening water stress and amplifying the risk of natural disasters, according to a new Atlas of Environmental Change launched by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report highlights alarming climate trends that threaten the country’s hydropower-dependent economy, fragile ecosystems, and disaster-prone geography.
Between 1960 and 2023, the Kyrgyz Republic’s average annual temperature increased by 1.2°C double the global average of 0.6°C. This trend is expected to accelerate in the coming decades, placing significant strain on water resources. River flows are projected to decline while demand for water increases posing serious risks for agriculture, energy production, and rural livelihoods.
The Atlas underscores the urgent need for robust climate adaptation policies, including reducing irrigation losses, improving early warning systems, and restoring degraded pastures, which make up 70% of the country’s grazing lands.
Water stress and disaster risks are mounting as climate change alters precipitation patterns, shrinks glaciers, and reduces snow cover. With up to 93% of the nation electricity generated from hydropower, decreasing water inflows threaten energy security. The report warns that the Toktogul reservoir, a key hydropower source, could see an 18.8% drop in water supply by 2050, directly impacting electricity generation.
Natural disasters are also becoming more frequent and intense, with the country experiencing an average of 200 emergencies annually 90% of which are linked to climate-related hazards such as floods, mudslides, avalanches, and earthquakes. Between 2012 and 2018, these disasters caused economic losses averaging $27 million per year. In 2022 alone nearly 150 people lost their lives due to extreme weather events, highlighting the urgent need for disaster preparedness and climate-resilient infrastructure.
Despite these challenges, the Kyrgyz Republic has made significant progress in conservation efforts, particularly in forestry and wildlife protection. Forest cover has increased from 6.2% in 2000 to 6.9% in 2023 due to afforestation initiatives, a notable achievement given the country’s mountainous terrain. Protected areas have expanded from 0.5 million hectares to 1.5 million hectares, with plans to increase this further to 10% of the country’s land area by 2040. This will help safeguard 60–65% of the species listed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List.
One of the most notable conservation efforts includes the establishment of Khan Teniri Nature Park, which has expanded protected land for snow leopards in the Central Tien Shan mountains by 40%. Additionally, all forests in the country are legally protected from large-scale commercial logging, ensuring the preservation of vital ecosystems.
The Atlas, built on six decades of data from global, regional, and national institutions, will serve as a critical resource for policymakers, researchers, and conservationists. Hosted on a publicly accessible GeoPortal, the database will be continuously updated based on national priorities and will provide insights into terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biodiversity conservation, and progress toward Sustainable Development Goals (SDG6 and SDG15).
The project is a collaborative effort involving multiple Kyrgyz ministries, government agencies, and international institutions. UNEP has supported the initiative by providing IT infrastructure, Geographic Information System (GIS) training, and technical expertise. In partnership with Lomonosov Moscow State University and the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Atlas was developed with financial backing from the Russian Federation. Similar environmental assessments for Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are set to be released in the coming months, extending the impact of this regional initiative.
As the Kyrgyz Republic grapples with the escalating consequences of climate change, the Atlas provides a crucial evidence base for shaping climate adaptation strategies, strengthening disaster preparedness, and ensuring the sustainable management of natural resources for future generations.