India can expect a ‘normal’ southwest monsoon in 2025, according to private weather agency Skymet. The agency has forecasted rainfall at 103% of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the June to September season. In its statement released on April 8, Skymet explained that the brief and weak La Niña phase is now fading, while the usually disruptive El Niño is unlikely to return this season.
Instead, neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific referred to as ENSO-neutral are expected to dominate. This, combined with a potentially positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sets the stage for a stable and beneficial monsoon.
Jatin Singh, Managing Director of Skymet says “ENSO-neutral paired with a positive IOD has historically brought good monsoons, second half of the monsoon season is likely to perform better than the early weeks”.
While the IOD is currently neutral, it may shift to a positive phase before the monsoon begins further improving prospects. Together these conditions are expected to keep the monsoon within safe margins shielding it from any extreme outcomes.
Skymet also cautioned that the monsoon may start on a slower note due to the swift transition from La Niña to neutral conditions. However, it is expected to gather momentum as the season progresses.
In terms of regional rainfall, the agency predicts good showers across western and southern India. States like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are likely to receive adequate rainfall, while areas along the Western Ghats including Kerala, coastal Karnataka, and Goa could see excess rain. However northeastern states and hilly regions of North India may experience below-normal rainfall.
With crucial sowing and water management depending on monsoon rains, this forecast offers cautious optimism for farmers and planners across the country.